Wow Peter. Re: ALXN. You are dead on. It has taken me until this moment to reach substantially the same conclusion. There are now openings for the shorts to pick apart the results which are more stratified than I would have expected, with "only" one subpopulation showing statistically significant efficacy. Regarding mortality, it would be an interesting exercise to find out what is the expected procedural mortality in this group. 1.9% (placebo) sounds low to me, so it may be that mortality will reach SS in a 2,000 pt trial that includes some really sick pts (this group was 'moderately' ill).
Since the most striking, unarguable benefit is for those cabbage patients with greatest ck levels, I do think that there is reason for increased hopefullness in the acute MI trials (as suggested in the PR). That would be even better. Plus, good news in any of the multi-dose trials against automimmue diseases (clearly the more obvious place for an anti-inflammatory), 100% owned by the company, will make the world forget about losing the royalty from CABG patients getting valve replacements.
Your trading comment is so insightful. It will be important to be armed with your knowledge as others try to use it against the company for temporary gain. I would not want to be chased out of this one altogether, especially with multi-dose RA around the corner, but I could see a sell-off after Dr. Bell goes on CNBC or whatever. If I held my shares in an IRA I might be following the same course.
Overall, I'm pleased with what we learned today.
Now, if I had read the board and your comment 2 hours ago, I could have finished some other work and been able to go home on time today. <g>
--Wilder |
