Rock: A tough one to call, on the surface it surely looked like a price volume reversal, but when I looked at the details, trading at the bottom was minimal (my own order at 5 13/32 never filled, indicating that the ask never dropped that low). For a good volume price reversal you want massive volume at the bottom as the bulls finally commit capital and the shorts cover. The rise appears more to have been engineered to get additional shorting above 6, but the end of this decline sure looks close. The price from which the bounce ocurred looks like a genuine support area, I am afraid, however, that it will have to be retested. I have removed my order and will wait to see how it develops from here before I decide. By the way, if I get in, it is not a "long term commitment", it is a play on what I would expect to be firmness of the stock in advance of the AGM. I expect a rise to at least 8 before the AGM, and if good news are released (such as metal on the table or a BD significant report), then another rally to the high 9' could be expected, so I am looking at a 30% to 50% rise from here, which, in my book, is a pretty good trade.
If we do not seem to start and build momentum before the AGM, this would indicate to me that something has gone awray, at least for the short term and then, my forecast of a test of 4 could still hold. Sorry, CL, but this is the way I see it, and the caveat is, as CL will point out, I have been wrong before and I will be wrong again (Lew, happy?)
Zeev
Zeev |
