Funny, I have the same problem around here with the food stockpiles. I do want to challenge one assumption:
Fuel will be available at lower prices soon.
From the data I've been following, it's quite likely that NatGas reserves will be at their lowest levels ever come spring, should we avoid actually running out. Canada is depleting their own stores to pump gas into the midwest at an unsustainable rate. Drilling thus far has barely covered the depletion of existing wells.
Add to this, that snowpack levels in the northwest are very low, meaning a lower than normal hydro supply- probably the dominate supply source around these parts.
Fortunately, those who held the right names (ie APA, BR or for more daring individuals, ROYL and CHK) have profits to offset higher fuel costs. But I don't see the fuel being available at a lower price, unless it's uranium that USEC recently got ok to buy from Russia. We know what the lead time is on use of that fuel. Maybe Coal?
[Edit: Perhaps a hard landing will bring Oil/Diesel down?]
[Edit: But even these fuel sources won't alleviate the CA situation much, as a major portion of their generation is tied to NatGas ]
So, if you were to adjust your thinking to higher fuel prices for the next 18 months, how would that impact your present day assumptions? Do you consider GDP growth in your Fundamental Analysis, or is that kin to Market Timing? |
