SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 160.52-4.9%Dec 12 9:30 AM EST
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Math Junkie who wrote (9408)1/23/2001 10:44:31 PM
From: Ian@SI  Read Replies (2) of 10921
 
There is no argument about the decline in both bookings and billings.

I've only pointed out that calculating precise percentages using preliminary numbers is probably misleading.

I fail to understand why you find it so important to use the preliminary number to calculate a % change especially given the effort that you've spent to see that it really can't be used to calculate a precise percentage.

At best, one could say that the current number implies that once we know what the final number actually is, we should be able to calculate a decline from peak bookings of somewhere between 13% and 22%. ... or 17.5% +/- 4.5%.

But knowing that still doesn't tell be any more than I already knew. Bookings and billings have declined from the peak. And if I listen to the conference call info; they'll probably stay down or go lower for another 3-6 months, perhaps even longer.

And none of that will change the fact that the next upleg will be driven by smaller feature sizes, Cu capacity rollout all at 300mm. What we don't know with certainty is whether that rollout will start 2H2001 or some time later.

At this time, the market seems to be betting that between the Fed's monetary policy and Bush's fiscal policy, it's going to be sooner rather than later.

Pardon me if I fail to see the significance obtained from looking backward at the BtB in this fashion as opposed to attempting to look forward for drivers of the sector.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News