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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (10458)1/23/2001 11:55:40 PM
From: GTC Trader  Read Replies (1) of 30051
 
Zeev,

Thanks for the prompt and detailed response. I am happy to know that you have not changed your scenario because I have entered some short positions and bought some March puts (Naz, SP500, and NYA) over the last several days.

No need to apologize for lowering your January top from 3150 to 3050. I was aware of this change and your reasoning for it when you posted the change several weeks ago. My intention was not to address the top changing from 3150 to 3050, but to confirm that you still expected a retest of Naz 2200 before long. It can be a little unnerving when everyone gets really bullish after I position my portfolio for an impending drop.

Much thanks for your detailed rationale. The fundamentals do seem quite ominous, which is why today's strong upswing seemed to smell of irrational exuberance to me, something that IMHO would not encourage AG to drop rates much if at all. I think .25 bp is the likely drop with no change also being a possibility. A .5 bp drop would really surprise me (and my bearish portfolio). The next five days should be interesting. I wonder if AG will have any surprises for us on Thursday. If so, I doubt that they will be good surprises for the bulls, but I have been wrong before.

Your comments are much appreciated, as always. Thanks.

Best regards - HB
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