Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 160.52

-4.9%

Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (9409)	1/24/2001 3:11:57 AM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) of 10921

Ian, take another look at the title of this thread. It's about determining when is the best time to buy, with the premise being that historically that has occurred when there has been a good deal of bad news in the industry. You complain that my calculation is inaccurate. Then you complain when I try to make it more accurate and attempt to determine what the boundaries of the inaccuracy are. I guess I don't see what your problem is. They're just numbers. If you don't find them useful, don't use them. I find them useful because I am trying to determine if enough blood is flowing. At the 1996 bottom, bookings were off about 50%. At the 1998 bottom, they were off about 70%. I submit that whether we are down 13% or 22%, it is still nowhere near the 50% to 70% range we have seen in the recent past. The problem with looking at technological drivers such as you have mentioned is that they don't seem to be very useful in determining the best time to buy. Every downturn I have seen has been accompanied by people talking about the technological drivers that should keep it from getting all that bad.

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