Jay- For a couple years, I held Dell long, and made some fat gains....
(Warning number 1) Then came the Feb. '99 debacle, in which Michael Dell tried to shade things a bit too much- stock took a big hit (post earnings) after company didn't meet expectations...that was the 1st time I had experienced Dell "misstating" things...of course, Dell came out with confident, "all is alright" forecasts..
(Warning number 2) In October '99, 2 weeks after telling analysts that the company would not be materially affected by the Taiwanese earthquake, MD had to eat crow, and admit that the earthquake would materially affect earnings...the stock got pounded...of course, MD came out with "this is a one-time blip, nothing more"..
(Warning number 3) In January '00, Dell pre-announced missing their quarter again....only weeks after saying that they would meet estimates...
I sold after the 3rd warning...wish I would have sold after the 1st (or at least the 2nd)..
My point: SNDK seems to have great technology (proprietary, semi-proprietary to boot), they seem to be in a sweet spot in some fast growing markets, and on a multiple basis (even with reduced growth estimates) the company seems more a value then a lot of other fast growing techs BUT....
Please be careful with ANY stock when the CEO begins "overstating" things...once that "pandora's box" gets out...well...in Eli's case, I find it really irresponsible (and unsettling) that he gave such a glowing account so near earnings, after reading that press release..
goes against his track record from what I can tell (just like MD back in '99)
I hope I'm wrong here....I will debate whether to enter long in the next few days....but Eli's "Jekyll/Hyde" routine...well, let's just say I've seen it before, and it can be scarier than the book...if nothing else, keep your eyes/ears wide open going forward...
BTW- I have no current position in the stock (although I was laughed at a couple weeks ago for exiting at 36+). It'll be lucky to open their tomorrow, IMO...
Good luck to you.... |
