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Strategies & Market Trends : Quarter to Quarter Aggressive Growth Stocks

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To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (1536)1/24/2001 10:50:42 PM
From: Jack Hartmann   of 6927
 
Some PRGN CC notes

SAN DIEGO, Jan. 24 /PRNewswire/ -- Peregrine Systems, Inc. (Nasdaq: PRGN - news), the leading provider of Infrastructure Management software and e-Markets enablement solutions, today announced record results for the third quarter ended December 31, 2000. The record third quarter results were driven by a 114% increase in software license revenues over the comparable prior year period. Continued strong demand in all products lines, led by a stellar contribution from the Get.It!(TM) product set, fueled rapid growth. Employee Self Service product revenues generated $20.6 million in license revenue, compared to $5.1 million in the comparable prior year period, a four-fold growth from the prior year period.

Total revenues for the third quarter climbed by 132% to a $156.6 million, compared with revenues of $67.5 million in the comparable prior year period.

Net income excluding aggregate acquisition costs and other related charges amounted to $22.6 million or $0.15 per diluted share for the third quarter compared to $8.7 million or $0.08 per diluted share for the comparable prior year period.

CC Notes
Steven Gartner – CEO, Matt Glass
- Issued 279M in convertible notes
- Beat revs est by 2M
- 15th consecutive quarter of beating street estimation
- 99.5M in license revs up 114%
- Services rev 56.1M 171% y2y
- Acquisition contributes IMG rev 121M, ENG 34.9M for revs
- 146% in NA revs, 59% of total
- International up 80% y2y, 41% of total
- GetIt! Was 21% of revs
- 61M in revs for this Getit in life
- 300K in contracts for Getit
- No 10% customer
- 34M in e-commerce revs
- Weyerhauser and National Semi are new customers
- 0.15 EPS vs. 0.08 y2y
- DSO 97 days, improved 9 days q2q due to better collection, goal 95 days
- Cash bal 249M, most from convertible note, expect to slightly in MarchQ
- Rev up 15M q2q
- Took e-mail questions
- Dealt with David Farley untimely passing
- Executed largest capital raising in history
- Absorbed customer bases of competitor
- Landed large customer
- Infrastructure Management Group (IMG) 121M in rev, strongest quarter for facility Center Product
- Introduce Real Estate Portfolio Manager
- GetIt revs over 20M in Q vs. 5M y2y, helps any employee get any product, anywhere as an employee improvement tool
- IMG new customers BT, IRS, KPN Telecom, RATG , Wire Amherst, Weeb, Chevron, Ed Jones, Merchantile Data, Citigroup, USMC
- We close fewer deal over 1M but larger size
- EMG (E-market Group) will grow 45% annually, Dr. Lewis comes from Engage, one stop shop for e-procurement
- DT licensed this technology for e-procurement
- 1M transactions/day to 1.2M/day, 280B yearly in e-commerce
- Europe, Middle East, and Africa did well
- NA struggled during last half, but did well with IBM, Arthur Anderson, and KGPM
- Got Fujitsu alliance working
- Starting an OEM sales to embed in products
- Lost Bill Moore – head of NA sales
- December uncertainy hurt sales, but visibility is good now
- IT spending will be better outside US than in the US
- Expanding into more Asia Pacific and South America
- See end users going to more outsource
- Major European Telecoms want to manage costs and e-commerce purchases
- Financial services first to stop spending and first to start spending
- Working closely with Tivoli/IBM Global Services as complete PRGN reseller
- 170M revs in March, up 10%
- 0.16 EPS for March is comfortable
- Strong interest in each of three divisions
- Could be surprise if an economic shift occurs
- Q&A
- Alpine Assoc – Cash?, Cash flow?
- A: 249M Dec00, Cash flow was slightly neg about 2M due to acquisiton, sig positive in futures as acquistion costs paid down
- Entackle Partners – Tivoli costs,
- A: No usual costs, Moore had mutual decision to leave company, closed Tivoli Dec 29, accounts receivable will come down to 95 days, no receivable due cash bought
- Pat Mason – Action Computers and Chevron, Citigroup
- A: Action is UK company resells IT assets – provide asset management and hosting service
- Chevron – co-exist with ARBA products in e-procurement, we can manage products after procurer
- Citigroup – telecenter product, Getit, asset management products sold. We are hosting ASP group through our data center in Atlanta. We hope we can expand through citigroup.
- Q: Real Estate portfolio manager
- A: It focus on management of financial side like leased assets, Facilty Manager is maintenance focus
- Q: Trammel Crow
- A: Uses facility manager for years, in discussion with other clients who have large real estate holding
- Q: length of hosting contracts
- A: 3 years usually
- Q: DBAB – ASP ramp
- A: We saw the transition to ASP as normal, came through a smaller number of larger contract vs. the other way around. EMG got Texaco last Q, got Weyerhauser and Chevron this Q
- Q: EMG q2q growth
- A: 10% total rev for PRGM and 40-45% for PRGN y2y
- Q: BAC – EMG competition from CMRC and ARBA
- A: DT – Duetsche Telecom (DT) uses us and CMRC products, integrate both. Volkswagon uses us and ARBA.
- Q: Artley Partners – competition upgrade, and Harbinger
- A: Infrastructure – Remedy is the presence, We are ahead of them in some areas after acquisitions
- Employee self service – Main question - Is it employee self service (ARBA) or e-procurement (Concur, Extensity) we offer complete where they do not
- Asset mgt- Main Control filed for an IPO and not got out so at disadvantage
- Facilty mgt – no competiton very fragmented
- Power Enterprise – Only competition is us
- Catalog tech – Aspect and Requisite competiton
- Q: Suite 0 Mgt. – rev by software of Tivoli
- A: Very little since only 2 days on books, expect a larger 3-4M range in March from Tivoli
- Q: ING – CIO conversation – getter better out in the econ climate?
- A: It was gloomy in financial service in last of Dec, now replaced by caution, sooner or later will get better, people stretching existing capital , We are seeing more optimism vs. late Dec00. Tough economic cycle. Seeing shift to buying products that have hard return on assets vs. products that would be nice.
- Q: Pushouts:
- A: Seeing several deal closes that were pushouts
- Q: OEM products
- A: Want to use Infratool product line (for servers and PC) and telecenter lines for this market. Near term has no expectation, but trying to see there is anything there.
- Q: FAC equities – IBM group
- A: 20-25 people working with IBM on this alliance. Sig op to gain customers in Tivoli/IBM base.
- Q: ASP license should been less
- A: We think license less 3-4% in next Q and service more
- Q: CSFB – Product wins, foreign exchange fluctuation
- A: Many wins like NEON and Explisity were initiates by us. Going after data transformation area.
- Arthur Anderson evaluate us as better to equal to rest in sector. Foreign exchange had no impact.
- Q: IP network transactions
- A: over 60% of transactions are IP
- Q: Deferred revs, IP vs. VAN
- A: IP not telecom cost vs. VAN, Deferred revs decreased 15%
- E-mails
- Q: Acct receivables
- A: Saw 9 day improvement in DSO
- Q: What NA sales problem
- A: Economy and have potential to execute this quarter.
- Q:Profit Margin
- A: 21% and same in Mar00, up 2% from Sep Q
- Q: EDS relationship
- A: Added 100K endpoints last q, will work with them on software
-
Revs 65.0M to 76.3M to 94.3 to 142.7M to 156.1M DEC00
EPS 0.00 to 0.09a to 0.10a to 0.12a to 0.15a DEC00
52-Week Low on 22-Nov-2000 $13.563
Recent Price $22.563
52-Week High on 28-Mar-2000 $80.625
Market Capitalization $3.27B
Shares Outstanding 145.0M
Float 110.2M
Price/Book (mrq) 1.83
Price/Earnings N/A
Price/Sales (ttm) 7.03
EBITDA (ttm) -$152.9M
Debt/Equity (mrq) 0
Total Cash (mrq) $35.2M
Short Interest As of 8-Dec-2000 Shares Short 8.22M
The above numbers do not reflect the current data but serve as a point in time

Up 50% since winter lows. One to watch

Jack
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