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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: gdichaz who wrote (38318)1/25/2001 12:01:53 PM
From: Eric L  Read Replies (2) of 54805
 
re: NOK & QCOM - Wireless Data Tornado - "Messaging"

<< on SMS and related "messaging". >>

See mind boggling bolded "In-Stat" wireless data stats associated (just) with "messaging" in article below.

I remain convinced that the (1st) wireless data tornado is here. It should really accelerate as 1xRTT and GPRS start general commercial deployment. The 2nd tornado should kick in behind it slowly and the 2 will run concurrently. Altogether, it should be one LONG tornado.

All the major research houses are picking up the signals.

Article below gets beyond SMS (EMS & MMS) but it all starts with SMS, and data roaming.

In addition to the good "messaging" article below there is an article here on 3G video "messaging". This will be attempted in 2.5G, crudely ... and 3G will fulfil the promise, hopefully:

Message 15244314

Handsets (and more elaborate 'thin clients' ... with more processing power and storage memory the key for what you envision ... but they will get here. We are a LOT further ahead than we were this time last year. Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt revolve around when the handsets will get here ... and the sector remains in the dumpster.

>> Messaging: Mobile E-Mail: Mobile Multimedia Messaging: Unlocking E-Mail's Potential

Bob Emmerson
ROAM
December 2000

Mobile network operators now have a unique opportunity to take command of a gigantic mobile messaging market, argues Bob Emmerson.

We are seeing an accelerating use of e-mail. For many enterprises and individuals this medium has become a mission-critical communications tool. In fact, e-mail has become so important for enterprises, SMEs and many individuals that it is now more than an application: messaging has become a network resource.

In parallel we have witnessed a dramatic increase in mobility - it's the raison d'etre for this publication, and wireless communications has already created a gigantic market that continues to grow at an unprecedented rate. In fact, it is probably the only high-tech sector where reality constantly outperforms optimistic forecasts.

Put these two developments together and the conclusion is obvious: the demand for mobile e-mail is already huge and it's going to get much bigger.

It will get bigger because the market will demand unified messaging - access to one mailbox from any client device, anywhere, at any time, and over any network. And after that it will probably start asking for multimedia messaging. At this time it is too early to tell if people will start sending digital postcards over the airwaves and the market for wireless video is way off. But Nokia is backing this one to the hilt and the Finns have a habit of being right when it comes to wireless futures.

More attractive with GPRS, but the case for mobile e-mail clearly becomes more attractive when GPRS services are up and running. Road warriors are then 'on line' all the time and e-mail comes in automatically. The model is the same as that of the wireline LAN. Messages come in more slowly, but that doesn't matter; this is not an application that demands high-speed transfer. However, users are not on line to their normal e-mail server (the corporate host or ISP) unless that ISP is also the network operator.

Dial-up connections from hotels and airport lounges establish a regular client/server session, but this can only take place when the client device is assigned (dynamically) an IP address by the server. This is needed in order to send e-mail to the correct location, and each dial-up establishes a new IP address.

In semi-technical parlance, a dial-up link makes the user part of the regular 'home' network; a packet-switched virtual link does not. Users in this environment are said to be in a 'remote' network.

IP addresses are associated with a fixed network location, but when the packet's destination is a mobile node, each new point of attachment made by the node is associated with a new address (a network number). This means that transport mobility is not possible.

The long-term solution to this problem is something called Mobile IP . But in the near and medium-term you have no alternative but to use the network operator's mobile e-mail service. Operators therefore have a lock on this market until the IETF nails down the IP Mobility spec - and the industry implements it.

MAKE OR BREAK

Nobody likes locks on key markets such as messaging, and it is somewhat surprising that this issue has not received wide coverage in the media. And the fact that operators have a very poor track record on the mobile data front is not encouraging. On the other hand, the market is going to start demanding robust, cost-effective services, and mobile e-mail could be the White Knight application that operators need to fund those massive 3G investments. And if they do not respond in time, then marketing-savvy virtual operators such as Virgin Mobile will. These guys follow the money.

Here's another take on the messaging scene. "Messaging will be the primary driver of wireless-data adoption over the next few years," according to Dave Jackson of Cahners In-Stat. "We estimate that the number of wireless messages sent per month will balloon from three billion in December 1999 to 244 billion by December 2004."

Mobile commerce and location-based services will follow messaging as growth vehicles, Jackson adds. However, In-Stat warns that the success of wireless data will depend on the build out of a new infrastructure that can handle location-based services, high levels of security, new payment options and detailed billing. "After that, the march toward wireless data will become a stampede."

Put another way, before you release the e-mail genie you have to open the bottle.

UNIFIED MESSAGING

There's nothing new about the idea of being able to see all message types - e-mail, voice mail and faxes - via the same client interface, such as Exchange or Notes. But behind the unified, client view of messaging there is a serious integration issue: voice and facsimile belong to one world and e-mail to another.

The old world way didn't work, and unified messaging (UM) became one of those developments that began to look like a good idea at the time.

However, times change and the new world environment of IP and e-mail has turned mobile UM into a 'must have' application.

But the market needs more functionality than mere unification. Individuals must be able to personalise their e-mail service, for example, in order to prioritise particular messages. And enterprises need delivery mechanisms that detect and block viruses and spam before they reach the desktops.

In addition, access to unified mailboxes must be enabled from a wide range of mobile devices - smart phones and PDAs as well as notebook PCs.

That's today's benchmark, and it indicates that these mailboxes must be accessible using an 'anywhere, anytime, any device, any network' model.

The quickest way of matching this messaging model is to use e-mail as a de facto bearer, and to transport voice mail and faxes as attachments.

In addition, location-based messaging and location-based applications can be incorporated. And via WAP the location can be made available to the application using cell ID.

These useful features indicate that UM can easily evolve from e-mail, and they underline the importance of getting this media type up and running as soon as possible.

LIMITED RESOURCES

If you are still reading this article, then you probably know all about long, expensive downloads from hotel rooms. Long - because somebody sent you files or faxes you didn't need at the time. Thin-client devices will only indicate that there is an attachment, and in the case of a fax it can be redirected to the nearest machine. However, the underlying problem is the same - the smart phone or PDA will choke on all the messages, and there is a very real danger that the one or two really important e-mails will be overlooked among the reams of electronic junk mail.

Fortunately, this one has been solved, although implementation is thin on the ground. If the service provider uses IMAP (internet messaging access protocol), users can read the headers in the message without having to automatically accept the contents of their mailbox and wait for attached files to download. This feature is known as 'in-place' messaging. Messaging overload while mobile can also be minimised via the use of triggers and filters.

In addition, service providers can employ solutions that effectively stretch resources. For example, Onset Technology has developed an impressive way of converting faxes to editable text and presenting it in an e-mail format. This is done by applying probability algorithms to images that have been optimised for processing, and then converting the result using a mix of optical character recognition engines. The final result is a structured e-mail message having standard message components such as sender, subject and message body. The company is also working on a similar solution for voice mail.

ONE OBVIOUS CONCLUSION

It's wake up time on the mobile e-mail front.

This isn't one of those windows of opportunity - it's a wall-to-wall sliding door. Systems vendors have seen it coming; now it's time for operators to get services up and running. Release the genie and the flow of much-needed data revenues will start

WHAT IS MOBILE IP?

Mobile IP is an enhancement that provides forwarding of traffic to moving users. It uses agents in the user's home network and in all foreign networks.

When logging on to a remote network, users register their presence with the foreign agent, and the home agent forwards the packets to the remote network. Without this enhancement 3G's packetised voice service will not function, but the real driver here is really high-speed mobile data using a mix of air interfaces. For example, Bluetooth, Wireless LAN and other technologies that will deliver rates of 20 Mbps and more. Currently, 4G is the term being used to cover this broad and somewhat undefined development. <<

- Eric -
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