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Gold/Mining/Energy : Copper - analysis
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To: Stephen O who wrote (245)1/25/2001 8:30:10 PM
From: Archie Meeties  Read Replies (1) of 2131
 
Well, sh*t. I just wrote a pagefull about the copper markets and SI ate it with one of its server errors.

The gist of it was that China is only 15% of the world market and couldn't make up the lost demand from the US, especially since it and the rest of Asia will not be shielded from a domestic slowdown. Yes, electricity transmission is 26%, but construction is 40%+, and that is going into reverse in the US. The other point was that the Chinese import data are notoriously suspect, for all commodities. A considerable amount of arbitrage goes on when the rnb price is less than 10% of the dollar LME price. Some of those imports are (were?) in Chinese inventories and not representative of real consumption.

Two bullish things pulling for copper; closure of US mines and the need to rebuild the US electricity transmission infrastructure. This Cali problem has frayed a lot of wire, and it might be replaced with larger diameter stuff.
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