Steve's Channelling Thread Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (10521)	1/25/2001 9:09:30 PM
From: Wayners	Read Replies (2) of 30051

Well there's two possibilities. Either the company's own guidance yesterday is right and the analysts are wrong or the analysts are right and the company is wrong. Analysts represent the mob the crowd and they sell at the bottom and buy at the top and they don't even know their doing it. If the company is right then JNIC will earn .80 to .85 next year with revenues growing 50% and net income growing high 30%. Book value is $3.10 using shareholder equity a few months ago. With 38 to 50 per cent growth the value of JNIC is $3.10 + 38(.80)=$33.50 or $3.10 + 50*(.85)=$45.60. Who are you gonna trust? The company or the analysts? At $20 a share the implied long term growth rate is ($20-$3.10)/.85=20% at the companies guidance. Preposterous! Also this thing IPO'ed at $19.

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