Rydex Total Assets Update for Thursday, January 25th, 2001:
Regular Series:
SPX Long - NOVA 490.6 Million
SPX Short- URSA 230.6 Million
NDX Long - OTC 2,078 BILLION
NDX Short- Arktos 64.6 Million
XAU Precious Metals 47.9 Million
Banking 80.3 Million
Biotechnology 458 Million
Money Market 979 Million
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Dynamic Series (200% correlation)
SPX Long - TITAN 131.7 Million**new all time high
SPX Short- TEMPEST 19.5 Million
NDX Long - VELOCITY 190.6 Million
NDX Short- VENTURE 36.1 Million
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Short Funds URSA, Arktos and Venture all bumped up respectably off of recent lows. Short Fund TITAN shrank. Notice in the double your pleasure fund Long assets are starting to get more comfortable in SPX rather than NDX.
If this market is going to rally it must first begin with much higher TA in the short funds. It is here where you can identify seeds of doubt in the market... a necessary ingredient for the market to move higher.
Rydex clearly showed the money was getting very comfortable moving back in Long over the past several days and now the rug is gona get pulled on the Bulls tomorrow. When it seems easy to enter the market place... the you know a near term top is nigh... as we called it yesterday like a chicken with its head cut off posting from different computer locations...
XAU Precious Metals TA are too high as the money got sucked in on the trap. Had I been at a working computer I would have spotted that 5-6 cent gap on the take-off day sooner. However, we still must fill that upside gap 51.99- 51.55... Let's hope it is sooner and not later... The trick then becomes how do we identify is it just filling the gap and heading back down or breaking into that XAU 53-55 resistance barrier I keep talking about... I am going to break down the individual stocks TA-wise in the XAU over the weekend...
I leave you with one thought... The Barton Biggs and Byron Wien factor called the exact top of this latest nasdaq run and I pointed this out in the january 2nd rydex update analysis:
MITA 5,861:
...< All we need now is Barton Biggs or Byron Wien from MSDW to get on CNBC and go back to their Bearish ways for the final au contrare reversal back long. Recall these "experts" made the Bullish call and said we had a 25% rally coming in Nazdaq on December 11th when COMP closed at 3,015 over the coming 4 to 6 weeks. To give these jokers to the left of me the benefit of the doubt we take the lower close on Friday December 8th when COMP closed at COMP 2,917 before they came on CNBC monday mid-day. Today COMP closed at COMP 2,292. We come up with one helluva return. DOWN 21.5%.
Now here is the joke of it all: Right now, over the next 4 to 6 weeks we are going to have a 25% move higher intraday from these levels COMP 2,292 and you know where that gets us? COMP 2,865. Underneath Biggs and Wiens breakeven levels. TAKE IT TO THE BANK>...
We closed the COMP yesterday at COMP 2,859...
Herein lies my own shortcoming... Rather than play the NDX for the run that has now materialized I locked into the XAU like a laser gone bust...
This is about opportunity cost and I missed the boat on the NDX run... But now it is gona give it back and I will have another opportunity going forward.
My individual issues helped buffer the miss in Rydex and I vow now that this computer works to take it up another notch...
To those of you I have not responded back to at all in a timely manner in the past few weeks I apologize.. You now know the reason... I will respond to all pm's and backposts that I missed if it is still relevant to the here and now...
Position: Still 100% Long XAU Precious Metals
Best Regards, J.T. |
