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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 54.58-1.0%Nov 10 3:59 PM EST
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To: Ian@SI who wrote (2689)1/26/2001 8:49:50 AM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (2) of 52153
 
Ian,

I still maintain a substantial ALXN long position, and so I believe in the company and the drug.

Here's another attempt at looking at these results:

1. On a superficial level (which is where pretty much all the posted analysis and comment has been) the results are excellent.

2. If you look a little deeper, there are some holes. Only one of the two arms worked. They missed their pre-determined endpoints. They engaged in subgroup analysis. Their PR skated over all these issues.

3. At a still deeper level, however, the results are very encouraging. I basically buy the company's analysis of what the trial has showed.

So much for the trial. Now let's factor in the shorts. I felt that the shorts would blow-up and magnify the items in 2 above. So far I've been wrong on that, and so my timing in parting with part (20%) of my shares was wrong. I wouldn't be surprised if we see some further attacks, however.

Peter
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