Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Olaf Koch who started this subject	1/26/2001 9:20:30 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) of 95453

NAZ 500 up; now 700 down coming .... thank you PMCS, thank you ERICY .... hmmm; Greenspan says "no growth" - whodathunkit ? Notice that we are hearing that "R" word allmost daily now ? Notice how its "sneaking" into daily conversation ? The reason why Greenspan will ultimately be villified is not because he waited too long to lower rates here; but rather because he didn't intervene in bursting the bubble sooner and with Rubin; let Wall Street and the stock market - versus sound money prinicples; influence his actions. Cutting rates won't cure bad loans and a reckless credit expansion tied to bubble stocks & just gives more liquidity-rope to those now treading water; but whom will ultimately crash & burn.... Greenspan is going to retire soon & is just trying to "stall" the collapse & preserve what is left of his legacy. This NAZ rally was a joke. Traditional inflows of indiviudal investors during the January effect were recklessly used to "walk up" Tech Stocks to window dress & paint money managers portfolio's. "OPM" was used to rally this market & the "Pro's" were the ones standing there on the other side of these trades. Why would anyone pay a higher valuation multiple here at NAZ 2700-2800 into a dramatically slowing economy than they did during the upcycle of the economy ? Insane... the "Bear" continues... we have not seen "rotation" cease to be an option & untill "cash" not sector rotation becomes the option du jour - we have not seen the bottom. Also, the DOW needs to rollover as well & it will.... Hopefully those playing this Tech DCB have taken, or are taking profits here... Q1 Tech reporting is simply going to be a PMCS-esque replay. And once again; the broad market environment overhangs much of our fundamental upside here in the Oilpatch... we may not make that March to May window and might get locked into the present trading range & if so; were at at "rollover" right here & now.... I'm watching the majors, watching rig counts & dayrates... I think it was either RDC, or GLM that didn't see any dramatic upswing for the next qtr ? - we still may have a 2H /01 story here as far as an "acceleration inflection" point for the OSX stocks. Multiples are not cheap if eps momenteum doesn't accelerate... and it must accelerate - it can't just uptrend slowly - that's all priced in here allready; it must "accelerate" to maintain valuations here and to move to new highs... there are a few lagggards; but the index & the mo-mo favs are NOT cheap and we still have the risk of another break sub OSX 100 if economic news continues to accelerate to the downside.... I wouldn't be ashamed to be selling & taking "some" OSX bounce profits here... we've just seen some "Rotation" money come in here off of earnings & I'm not so sure that we don't rollover & re-test OSX 115ish merely from an absence of buyers; more than having an avalanche of sellers. I've moved stops right up tight here & may do lots of profit taking-selling this am at the open in the stocks that broke nicely here. Still some cheapies & laggards - love PGO here; PDE still cheap etc; but may sell the breakout leaders here & then rotate more money to laggards on any pullback to support. "Feels" like we rollover & base at that 115ish range any second... I'll keep taking these 10-15% moves; because we are not seeing the type of eps , or rig count, or dayrate breakouts that we need to see to take us thru OSX 140 and to new highs. ... XAU/Gold & Silver continues to form a very strong base here & the mo-mo large caps have pulled back a bit; NEM & HM on any & all weakness are must "average in" buys here. US Dollar will be "walked down" & Gold will continue to trade inversely to the Dollar... I still think the XAU is a +30-50% chip shot in a worst case scenario this year....and see 50% to doubles in the small caps like KRY KGC TVX GLG et al.... rd.yahoo.com*http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B133B2387%2D30AC%2D4B77%2D84CE%2DFF5A642D2D76%7D

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