Kevin, stock investment was never a sure thing. No matter
what you decide, there is always a risk associated with
that decision. It's up to you to figure out the degree
of that risk. In other word, it's a probabiliy game.
First, I agree with both hands that there is nothing here
suggesting "for sure" that recession wont come. And if
it indeed comes, all this rally here means nothing. I've
been saying all along in this board that the only thing
this market has not taken into discount is a real and
hard recession.
However, if signs are all clear that recession wont come,
and GDP is heading towards 4% this year, do you really
think NASDAQ is still around 2700 now? I would say
a minimal 3500 or possible 4000 is posted already.
My point here is, there is no free lunch on wall street.
If you want everything to be "sure", you are most likely
behind the game already.
Now, why do I think recession is not likely? Simple,
for the first time since Oct 1998, Fed has again shown
that it is gonna do whatever it takes to save this economy.
With aggressive rate cut (BTW, a 50 point cut is virtually
guaranteed by Greenspan yesterday), and possible tax
cut, and CA enegery crsis coming under control, I
think all point to a very likely good second half.
Finally, buying stock does not equal buying blindly.
You can still make money by going long, or losing much
less than the average market, even in a downside market.
My portfolio is essentially where it was last October
when NASDAQ was at 3200. If you can't do this, then
self-investing is not for you. Put your money in
mutual fund, and enjoy the worry-free quality life
time:) |
