tim....market perceptions are reality, but at some point in time the reality becomes the perception....maybe a bit of double speak....but look at the last year...certain issues were grossly over valued and had no intrinsic value, but the market kept them flying high on perceived hopes....when reality sets in, it drives the reverse to an excess...but begins to normalize prior to the next euphoric cycle....dell a perfect example....company posting great numbers, stock starts slipping, reaches a point where the perception and negative expectations cross the reality of disappointing earnings....stock slides lower, stabilizes, and enters the "only way is up" phase...many stocks are at this point...dell, cpq, wcom, atml, xlnx, intc, msft, qcom....barring any added tangible stock specific bad news, they begin a bottoming and basing...tend not to move in tandem with the market, have a mind of their own....this is good...
conversely the still overvalued, albeit some very good companies move in tandem with the market but in excessive amounts....this is not good....
"investors?" must question at this point do they want to ride a wild bull, and hope they don't get thrown off and trampled, or get on the old gray mare that ambles along, stops to eat the vegetation on the side of the road, but ultimately gets you to your destination...too many got used to riding the wild bull, and as luck has it, were never thrown off....this is not how it is now...
be cautious and good luck....watch the trading action of xlnx and atml today...they have become linear with an upward bias...brcm beginning to do this...jdsu all over the place....
ed a. |
