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Technology Stocks : Metrowerks (MTWKF) - low volume, low visibility
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To: Sam Ragucci who wrote (47)6/3/1997 9:37:00 PM
From: Richard M. Smith   of 82
 
Sam,

I think that things are pretty dire at Apple. Here is why.

>>> A sequential comparison is somewhat misleading,
>>> since the preceding quarter included a new
>>> version of Code Warrior (CW 11) and this one did not.

By my estimates, Metrowerks was doing about $2 million
per quarter in Mac sales for the previous 4 quarters in 1996,
not just the previous 1 quarter.

>>> The uncertainty over Rhapsody has also caused developers
>>> to "wait and see", pushing out Mac Code Warrior sales
>>> until they decide how to take advantage of Rhapsody.

Yes, this is exactly my take too. I think that that Apple is
pulling an Osborne here. That is, developers are stopping
work on MacOS applications, but they can't get started on
Rhapsody applications yet because it doesn't exist. Oops.
Then Apple faces the classic chicken-and-the-egg problem. No one
will write applications for Rhapsody because there is no
installed base and customers won't buy the Rhapsody OS because
there are no applications.

Here are some more data points about Apple:

- Attendence from the recent WWDC was down about 10% from
a year ago.

- The Mac's marketshare as measured by job postings for C++ programmers on the Internet declined by 25% from a year
ago.

- Steve Jobs announced on Friday that he is selling all
of his stock in Apple that we picked up when Apple
bought Next.

Richard
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