Ben,
<< How will they bridge their technology chasm to achieve 1x for N America in a timely fashion (provided, of course, they get 95b functioning)? >>
"technology chasm" ??? Well, if they have had one it would certainly be with mastery of IS-95. No IS-95B in America, then, now, or in future, so I guess they will let Telson worry about that for Korea and possibly Japan.
I think the article spells out pretty clearly what they are "attempting" to do.
<< Lets say they need to have 1x chipsets functioning at least on a par with Q's 5105 by this time next year to compete? >>
They won't have to ... in order to compete,and gain market share. Verizon wise, 1xRTT will not be rolled out nationwide this time next year. (See me this time next year to see if that is accurate <g>).
BTW: On Verizon, CDMA is not nationwide to begin with. AMPS everywhere. Target is end of 2003.
Customers won't be flocking in to buy 1xRTT handsets. This is not Asia. I'll be in a short line, and with the exception of you, me, and our threadmates, nobody will be specifying "QUALCOMM Inside" (which is really too bad).
Chief criteria for a Verizon qualification is full compliance with their single rate plans (which means tri-mode and full compliance with some of the (3) networks and ALLTEL's idiosyncrasies - they have already mastered that. Second requirement is SMS. They haven't mastered that and the problems seem to be more AMPS related.
Verizon's working there way out of that now, and in the network overhaul, although 1x is obviously a priority, it is not THE priority, which is probably why Verizon has not yet contacted.
BTW: My Qualcomm QCP-860 ThinPhone did not qualify for the OLD BAM (now Verizon) National rate plan. Couldn't master some of the idiosyncrasies of the then roaming partners, as explained to me, when they were all 800 MHz. My Older QCP-800 was originally qualified and dropped for that reason. The new Kyocera's (2035) are qualified.
Also note that Verizon carries no Samsung, Sanyo, LG, or Neopoint. I would assume that they have tried to qualify.
<< Can they accomplish 1x prior to commercial 1xev roll out? >>
By 2003 in the US? I would bet on it. Better be in 2002. Standard was firmed in April 2000. They ought to be ready in 2002.
<< Will NOK ever be less than 1 full cdma technology generation behind? >>
cdma2000 wise - probably not until one year after the interim standards become a complete ITU IMT-2000 standard. That will matter more in Asia than here.
W-CDMA wise - certainly. If not, Jorma better fire all bloody 20,000 of those R&D types.
Certainly buying chipsets from Qualcomm will get you "first to market". Nokia doesn't need to be "first to market", particularly on the high end, and particularly in a market that is way slow on data takeup, and forecasted to remain so.
Still, they have a challenge. In order to maintain US market share, they have to do IS-95A (first) then 1xRTT.
CDMA has just become the dominant US technology. It should represent 50% of the domestic market by 2004.
US is Nokia's biggest market (followed by China) and the majority of its shareholders are here. It's a must.
Buying Qualcomm chips would be expedient. It is not necessarily the most sensible thing for Nokia shareholders, and in fact would be counter productive long haul.
Will they succeed? They have with every other technology.
With IS-95, they have certainly not yet succeeded .. yet ... so juries still out on that. Odds are they will succeed, IMO.
Qualcomm's largest customer, Samsung, of course will face the same challenges if they design their own chips, which rumor pops up from time to time, and as noted in the SpinCo prospectus "we also face competition from the in-house
development efforts of many of our key customers, including Samsung."
- Eric - |
