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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!
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To: James Connolly who wrote (9114)1/26/2001 4:07:57 PM
From: Allen Benn  Read Replies (3) of 10309
 
You are correct that dropping Digital Printers/Multifunction as a lily pond does not drop them from the company. Lily ponds are identifiable high growth royalty markets that are, or are beginning, to be significant for the dominant company, WIND. Indeed, Digital Printers/Multifunction may be a lily pond, but we just don’t know it. Mature markets can be great places to establish a fresh lily pond based on an increased value-add, resulting in increased ASP that flourishes in the established market.

Also, when you say "Server Appliances STILL is projected to be the largest lily pond in five years" do you mean in FY2006/7 i.e. outside the time horizon of the lily pond site ? In other words you expect Server Appliances to over take wireless hand-held Internet devices after FY2005.

My mistake. The calculations for wireless were somewhat complicated and my results don’t match the numbers posted. The result should be corrected when the site is updated. The actual forecasts for this potential lily pond are lower by half, making Server Appliances the most significant lily pond within the timeframe analyzed.

Technically, the Wireless Handheld Internet Devices is not yet a lily pond either, because WIND does not possess a dominant market share. I included it because its potential is absolutely huge, but it needs to develop much more before we should take it too seriously.

Allen
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