I agree with your post, for the most part. But ...
<In the recession-less scenario, I have a low in the Naz on or before the "ides of March" in the 2200 to 2400 range (if we do not get to 3050 by the end of next week, these numbers might even be further downgraded), I have SNDK creating a double bottom at $24, with a possible minor breach.>
If the NAZ hits 2200 in Feb, what is going to spark a run in March? NAZ 2200 will only delay corporate spending, further suppressing consumer confidence. Investors will be spooked to put their money into stocks long-term. Consumers will continue to be stingy.
What could possibly change investors/consumers minds by March, with ANOTHER huge hit in techs? That's only five weeks away, after all.
That said, I don't think we'll see NAZ 2200, as I don't think AG will let that happen ... if he can stop it with talk or cuts, he will. He likes Bush, but he is well aware of the Bush/Cheney team's ability to talk down the economy in order to get these tax cuts.
Best,
Dave
edit, if NAZ 2200 happens, I think SNDK low is much below $24. |
