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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Mark Adams who wrote (62231)1/26/2001 6:20:04 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (6) of 436258
 
Mark, practically all industrial commodities would probably qualify. we have had a decade of near zero investment in mining for instance. we are already seeing the consequences of this in the huge run the platinum group metals have had, as well as the recent four-fold increase in tantalum prices.
now before you tell me palladium's run is all Russia's fault, note that the South African mines have ample room to expand production. they didn't do it in recent years because their products were underpriced for so long.
from what i have heard, we are on the cusp of experiencing serious shortages in virtually all the base metals too.
silver: global inventories have recently reached a 65 year low, and the US government's stock pile is gone in its entirety. nothing left. zip. nada. zilch. and yet, silver prices are hovering near an inflation - adjusted 5,000 year low.

i'm not sure of what is happening in ag commodities, especially as the sector is distorted by subsidies all over the world (the EU has allocated 63% of its budget to ag subsidies for instance). but left to its own devices, the current low prices would likely result in shortages too. something seems already to be happening with meat, as cattle and hog prices have advanced sharply.
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