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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: Psycho-Social who wrote (67787)	1/27/2001 7:38:35 AM
From: s berg	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Most refer to Dent in terms of Baby boomer's eventually bulling money out of the market for retirement. More interesting Q IMHO raised by earlier post is what happens when pool of young workers and consumers shrink, i.e. do we get economic stagflation reflected in a secular bear market. That is why I find it really worrisome that unemployment, admittedly a lagging indicator, is still at record lows even as the economy moderates, i.e. is this a harbinger of stagflation and the secular bear. Another interesting demographic force (this was a book I heard about on NPR) is of alternating decade periods of economic growth / declining crime rates with declining growth and rising crime rates. The idea is that children who grow up in the 70s are motivated by economic uncertainty to work hard whereas children who grow up in the 80s, not to disparage a whole generation, are less motivated because they grew up in affluent times. See the recent Doonebury strip about slacker college students trying to be Dot Com millionaires. Psysocmarper et al., Are you saying that the implication for the next 14 years is a secular bear.

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