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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 303.84

+1.3%

Dec 22 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (302)	1/27/2001 4:02:39 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) of 95622

Gottfried, Many thanks for all the updated charts. They look great!! Now I need to get busy and update the tables that I made last month and re-post on the thread.<g> I will try to do it this weekend as I will be off traveling all next week with no chance of posting. In looking at the charts and data, it is very interesting to look at the build-up of backlog the past 24 months. This cumulative build-up is on the order of 8 Billion - that is a lot of money and helps cushion the effects of a falloff in bookings over the short term. One example with which I am familiar is LRCX. I listened to the conference call. They had record bookings in the December quarter of probably close to 550 Million which provided a record backlog. They anticipated(guessing really) a falloff in bookings of maybe 30 percent in the March quarter. This would put their bookings at approximately 385 Million for the quarter. They expect to ship about the same as the December quarter(494 Million) and do 0.50 to 0.54 in earnings. With a record backlog at the start of the quarter, and if they achieve the bookings they expect, the March quarter should be relatively easy to make using up slightly more than 100 Million of their backlog. I think many companies in the semi-equip business have a similar situation due to the build-up of backlog over the last 24 months. If the drop in bookings is not too severe, and does not last too long, the high backlog should help cushion the effects of the present downturn. IMO Don

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