I will hold my bear attitude to a minimum on this thread but wish to act in the role Caution at this juncture. I hold my last three hundred shares of 9984 for old times sake, have no inclination, desire, or (yes, I admit it) nerve to buy any back. I had added a sprinkle of US tech shares, starting with the Ariba, ending with Yahoo!, sandwiching in the EMCs and JDSUs, topped of with a tomato and OpenWave. I may order a side dish of CSCO at some time, either directly or via Puts, but I intend to sell all before end of February.
I believe in tech, global I-net, Japanese savings, Japan I-net, and at times I even have a secret hope for Japan reform success. I also believe in economic and credit cycles, and I fear the retribution that awaits us at the end of this glorious journey.
9984 had been mortally wounded, led by too many generals and not followed by enough soldiers. For the soldiers that are still standing, 9984 VERT is missing a leg, two arms, and vision; 9984 ARBA is charging alone, and may be picked up cheaper and with less risk through the US ARBA; 9984 YHOO is still valued wrong, but US YHOO less so; 9984 CSCO is doing OK, but the entire server/switch/code box is well on the way of being totally demystified and manufacturing cost and service will determine outcome of the competition, degenerating leading companies to status of running in order to stay even.
9984 does seem to be active in the Japan financial services area via acquisitions and such, and I believe financial services is a good way to play economic recovery. Pure plays financials are plentiful on the Tokyo stock market.
9984 needs a concoction of secret sauces to bind all the constituent but disparate ingredients together and actualize that fabled concept of culinary synergy. There are few sauces that can bind I-net Infrastructure to B2B to B2C to Genome to Financial Services, except Mania, Frenzy, VC Fund Management, Deluded Media, and Weight of Money, but not Son alone. |
