From the 80's to now, there is no parallel for the movement in the COMPX.
Considering only the monthly chart, rounding off the numbers 'cause I'm lazy:
- The average significant pull back tends to be around 62%.
- The latest pull back is 76%, so far.
I measure the rise as starting from the low of 1998's sell off to the peak. Rational, on the monthly chart, is simple. There wasn't a single monthly bar that closed lower than the prior one. It was one giant uptrend, a 278% move from bottom to top. A big move in a short time, only 1.25 years (222% per year as compared to the number below).
Why measure from the 98 point? It was the only significant pullback, on a monthly chart, that made a lower low than any other monthly pull back or consolidation zone since the uptrend began, following the 1988-91 congestion zone.
In contrast, the dark days of 1987 only retraced 42% of the move that started in 74. Mind you that as a 729% move, albeit over 12 years (60% per year).
What, if anything, does all this mean?
Damned if I know, I just trade what is in front of me.
However, my inclination is to believe that its *more likely than not* that I'll have to measure the current retreat from lower prices, at some future point. |
