Part II.
5. Frequently Asked Questions on the "Gorilla and King Portfolio candidates" thread:
A. What's all this talk about thread portfolios?
"There are two main ones, the 'Gorilla and King,' and the 'Watch and Wait.' Both are in 'Year 2001' versions. To get to them, go directly to the top of this page. Click on the blue, underlined, 'Gorilla and King Portfolio candidates,' go down the page to the first hyperlink (the G&K Index) and click. To get to the 'Watch and Wait' portfolio, scroll down to the second hyperlink instead."
B. Why aren't you using a basket approach to investing? Even Geoffrey Moore says it's a good idea.
"Obviously, we like Moore. But, we don't necessarily follow everything he says. After all, we're all free to invest any way we think best. And some of us believe a basket of potential gorillas dilutes our returns. (That is, all of the capital tied up in non-gorillas is, by definition, not in gorillas - where is should be.)
C. Why don't you consider 'X' a gorilla? It's a great stock.
"Gorillas are not just great stocks, they are great 'high return/low risk' - or virtual monopoly - stocks. But read the header for more details."
D. Could you please help me invest some money?
"No. We are all responsible for making our own decisions. (And, it's not appropriate to ask us anyway.)"
E. What is the best way to get up to speed on this thread?
"Read the header, read the connected links, read the thread (or as large a portion of it as possible), and read TRFM."
F. Is all this work worth it?
"You be the judge. But, it is public knowledge that we discussed the advantages of holding QCOM in the spring of 1999, Gemstar and JDSU that summer, and CREE and NTAP in the fall of 1999.
In fact, in order to provide our musings with a benchmark, the GKI was created in the spring of 1999 from companies that both meet our criteria and had preformed well to that point. And while an oversized part of its gaudy appreciation (+193%) that year was caused by Qualcomm (+ 2,238.7%) there were 9 other stocks – out of a total of 21 - that held onto triple digit gains. (See message number 14707, located by Larry Grzemkowski.)
{Year 2000 Half-Time score = The Nasdaq composite through the 4th of July, 2000 was down 1.9 %, the GKI on average was up 28.8%, the W & W portfolio on average was up 63.8%. Year 2000 Final Score = The Naz ended the year
-39.27%, the GKI –14.6%, the WWI was –17.1%}.
As Benjamin Franklin said "Experience keeps a dear school, but (some) will learn in no other" - straight life.
G. Who is Merlin, Sir Galahad, or Dancelot? I don't remember seeing them post.
"Because the thread was seen by many as the 'Camelot of Cyberspace, ' most of the original nicknames are Arthurian. But we ran out of names from Camelot and ventured into other mythologies."
The Roundtable:
Uncle Frank = UF
Mike Buckley = Merlin
Tekboy = Sir Ares
DownSouth = Sir Galahad
Chaz, the Master of the Hunt = Sir Thucydidies
LindyBill = Sir Dancelot
StockHawk = Sir Plutus
Apollo = Sir Apollo
JRH = Sir Chartmeister
Bruce Brown = Sir Lyre
Joel Yagoda = Sir Perceval (on quest).
sixpak.cs.ucla.edu
sixpak.cs.ucla.edu
H. How does a stock get on the W & W portfolio, or the G and K portfolio, for that matter?
"A befits the unofficial 'King Arthur and the Round Table' thread, via trial by combat, of course.
(At the end of 1999 we promoted stocks from the W & W to the G/K portfolio. JDSU was promoted last. In the future we hope to use the results of 'Project Hunt' (see below) to feed stocks into the W and W portfolio. Stocks can also be nominated in a less formal manner, as Comverse Technology was in messages 37189, 37207 and 37208)"
I. Is there a list of consensus Gorillas?
"No, but see the G & K portfolio for ideas."
J. Where should I start looking for new Gorillas?
“In High Technology, it's as simple as that. Even though the search for gorillas is a frustrating one due to their scarcity and feels more like a search for Sasquatch than for plain old silverbacks, we must remain focused on where and how we search, with the payoff being worth the discipline. You can search for a gorilla in Miami Beach all you want but you ain't gonna find one, ever. Gorillas could have been comprised of other characteristics then the ones we are interested in, but they are not. Gorillas are giant dominant technological powerhouses and searching for them in another context is academically stimulating but futile. If that were not true we could stretch the G&K principles to, let's say, consumer goods. Heinz would be a ketchup gorilla. It has proprietary open architecture, because of its secret recipe. It has gorilla dominance in market share, because who buys anything but Heinz ketchup? So where would we draw the line?” - 100cfm.
K. Isn't the GG risky?
"To a greater or lesser degree all investing is risky. However, as our goal is to find 'high return/low risk' stocks, we believe our method is not as risky as it may appear to the uninitiated. As Uncle Frank said, "we specialize in sure things, which are hard to come by <vbg>.... The Gorilla gaming approach is to look for companies with strong technology positions, and try to evaluate the strength and durability of their positions. The fact that a company is "hot" in terms of its stock price has no relevance to this evaluation, though a rapidly rising stock price often catches our attention in the first place. One thing that we look for in both GKI and W&W candidates is profitability.
Now, does this sound particularly risky?”
L. As most gorillas have a market cap of over $10 billion aren't they already known to the market? And, if so where's the advantage?
"Do your own DD. However, it's our belief that although the market may know of gorillas, it also fundamentally misunderstands them. And, therefore, it usually undervalues them. (For instance, just look at most analysts’ reports. And remember, the ability to ignore a continuous flow of analysts’ mistakes is one of our biggest advantages.)”
M. This may all be very well, but I just bought a Gorilla and it went down. How come?
"Gorilla stocks, like most other forms of investment, will appreciate and depreciate over certain periods of time. And, in fact, its unreasonable to expect stocks only to appreciate due to any number of factors, including market conditions, Fed actions, Momo players, management decisions, FUD attacks, short activity, analysts' errors, and margin calls. Our theory, however, is based on a long-term buy and hold strategy, and asserts that over any appreciable length of time a Gorilla's stock will outperform its competitors."
N. But doesn't using Gorilla Gaming at least guarantee success?
"No, of course not. 'Lower risk' is not 'no risk.' And while we believe that GG is a superior investment strategy over the long haul, even when using it things may go wrong. Or, as Samuel Goldwyn said, “forecasts are difficult to make, particularly about the future.”
O. My friends say the gorillas stock price is too high. So I think I'll wait for it to split.
"If all that your friends know about a gorilla is its price, next time try not to listen to them. If, however, you think they really are experts, then don't listen to us."
P. What's "Off Topic" (OT) on this thread?
"The only thing off topic on this thread is rudeness. A fine example of this civility may be found in Keith Feral’s classic G/K reply: 'What a great post. Unfortunately, I disagree with everything you said. '
(We would, however, ask that any extended discussion not having to do with stocks be carried on by PM.)"
Q. But how do I send a Private Message (PM)?
"Just click on the person's highlighted name on the main board. The resulting screen will have a private message link on the far right hand side. Click on it, and you are off and running."
R. How did you create all those neat bold headlines, and italicized answers?
"See message number 17557, by Joel Yagoda. Also see Mike Buckley's message number 17307, and message 26824 from Stockhawk for fixed fonts.”
Formating summary = Message 12973660
More formating = bbsinc.com or message number 33620.
Also see the following link for changes in the color of a message’s header:
Subject 36425
S. Where is the SI FAQ?
siliconinvestor.com
T. Where can I get historical quotes?
chart.yahoo.com
And here's a link that lists several sites offering historical quotes.
corporateinformation.com
U. Are there any mutual funds that play the Gorilla Game?
”Not that we know of, although there does appear to be a few that have pongid characteristics. See Firsthand Leaders Fund (message 31984), Foliofn (message 31991and 32011), IPS Funds (message 31996), and ROGSX - Red Oak Technology (message 32031).”
But, as Mike Buckley has noted, "just because some people feel their holdings and investment reasoning appear to be gorilla-based, mutual fund managers change, holdings in them change, and ‘due diligence’ remains the important phrase as always. "
V. As there are some great stocks in the bio sector why aren’t some of them in the G and K Index?
“Biotechs are not eligible for the Gorilla & King Index. They can't be detected by GG metrics and don't behave in a pongid manner even after they become successful.” - UF
W. How do “Cool Posts” get nominated on SI?
“See post 35594.”
6. Thread projects:
A. "Project HUNT" - An organized hunt for new gorillas. See chaz (Thucydidies), message numbers 15464, 15096, and 15104. And for a summary of its results see message 18186.
A partial list of the results:
Company……Author:
BVSN James Sinclair
EMLX buck
EXDS Snasraway + Apollo’s message # 32712 post-Hunt report.
HLIT Eric Jacobson
RNWK Suprow
WIND I John Huber
WIND II Don Mosher – message # 32013 and 32242
ATYT SMACS
KOPN Voop
ELON Janet_Wij
INSP techreports
WGAT Mishedlo
INFS John Stichnoth
RATL Bob Wozney
CHKP Eric Jacobson
PHCM..John Stichnoth and Susan Huebert
NOK Eric L. (coming soon).
They are saved on Erick’s site:
erickson-malinoski.com
SNDK....pre-Hunt report by Ausdauer - 16607 or
Message 12695440; Subject 33114
sixpak.cs.ucla.edu
B. "FAQ" - This message. It’s posted once a week, usually on Sunday, (or Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday). It’s also listed on our Web site.
C. "Index of Important Messages" - See Erick’s archive thread:
Subject 33114
erickson-malinoski.com
D. "The Front Office Gorilla Game" - The results are posted quarterly (no longer monthly), soon after Siebel issues its quarterly report. - See Mike Buckley's (Merlin's) message number 17325, 17758, 34623 and 38342.
E. "Ownership Survey" - Contact Apollo (Snasraway). See posts #11397, 23964, 35281, 35398, and 36471 for information on the Personal Portfolio Survey of the G & K thread.
F. "Handheld Gorilla Game" - See Johnzhang's messages, number 17450, 13596 and 27129.
G. "The Registry of G/K Regulars" - See Tekboy's (Ares) message number 17215.
sixpak.cs.ucla.edu
H. "Project Network" - (Under Construction) See message numbers 32422, 32461, 32473, 32479, 32496, 32500, 32503, 32508, and 32582 for the format of each report.
Project Network was started by a Mike Buckley suggestion that we explore network effects in order to develop a set of criteria for evaluating stocks. The project is modeled on Project Hunt.
Prime Contractors:
YHOO--Don Mosher - see 33893, 33895, 33891, 33904 and 33896
Siebel--Mike Buckley
I2--Bruce Brown
NTAP--Down South – see message 37735
JDSU--Judith Williams – see 36844, 36852, 36853 and 36855 or
Message 15111079
WIND--Don Mosher – 38486, 38489, 38490, 38491, 38493, 38494, 38495 and 38497. Plus net-gain.com
GLBX--Don Mosher
QCOM-- Eric L. has agreed to do an abbreviated report on the Q.
sixpak.cs.ucla.edu
If all this seems too ambitious for now, why not become a 'beater'? Beaters, were sent ahead of big game hunters in order to scare game back towards the hunting party. In other words, simply search the web for articles about QCOM, JDSU, CREE, NTAP, PMCS, CSCO, BRCM, MSFT, EMC, GMST, NT, SEBL, or ITWO and bring the LINK back to the board.
7. Resources:
A. Books of Interest:
Clayton M. Christensen - The author of "The Innovator's Dilemma."
See message 17214 for a summary by Apollo.
Charles Ferguson & Charles Morris- Authors of "Computer Wars" who were the first to explicitly point out the importance of architectural control to market-place power which was used when defining "Proprietary Open Architecture with High Switching Costs (page 52; RFM).
George Gilder - The futurist author of "Microcosm" and " Telecosm" and publisher of the "Gilder Technology Report.
Geoffrey Moore - See the header. The author of "Crossing the Chasm," and "Inside the Tornado." And with Paul Johnson, and Tom Kippola, the author of "The Gorilla Game." His newest book is "Living on the Fault Line."
Michael E. Porter - The author of "Cases in Competitive Strategy," "Competitive Advantage: Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance," "Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors, " "Michael E. Porter on Competition" and "Competitive Strategy " etc.
B. Web Sites of Interest:
Commercial News Web Sites:
a - Bigcharts.com = bigcharts.com
b - Bloomberg = bloomberg.com
c - CBS Matchwatch = cbs.marketwatch.com
d - C/NET = news.com
e - CNNFN = cnnfn.com
f - Computerworld = computerworld.com
g - Ecompany = ecompany.com
h - The Economist = economist.com
i - The Fool = fool.com - Web
Resources List Index
j - Fortune = fortune.com
k - Information Week Online = informationweek.com
l - Lightreading = lightreading.com
m. - MSN = moneycentral.msn.com
n - Raging Bull = ragingbull.com
o - Red Herring = redherring.com
p. - Rueters Moneynet =
moneynet.com
q - SmartMoney = smartmoney.com
r -Technology Investor = technologyinvestor.com
s - TechReview = techreview.com
t - TechWeb: The IT Network = techweb.com
u - The Telecomm Analyst = thetelecommanalyst.com
v - Total Telecom = totaltele.com
w - The Stanadard = thestandard.com
x - Upside Today: The Tech Insider = upside.com
y - Wireless Development Network = wirelessdevnet.com
z. - ZNET = zdii.com
2. Various G/K Strategy Web Sites:
a. Cicso = boards.fool.com
b. Cree = boards.fool.com
and
boards.fool.com
c. Fool.com summary = boards.fool.com
d. Frontiers of Strategy is a series of research reports written by Michael Mauboussin and published by Credit Suisse First Boston =
capatcolumbia.com
e. Gorilla Thread =
boards.fool.com
f. G&K Investing for Curmudgeons = Subject 31984
g. JDSU = boards.fool.com
and tsrec.com and
Message 12241653
plus 36844, 36852, 36853 and 36855.
h. NTAP = tsrec.com
and “The Case for a Gorilla”- see message number 35019 – by Sir Galahad.
i. Qualcomm - Coming Into Buy Range Thread =
Subject 8007
j. Qualcomm's Link Shrine = ultimate.org
k. Rocket to the Stars (Q) Thread. =
clubs.yahoo.com
To post, you need an invitation. Get it here:
clubs.yahoo.com
l. Raging Bull Q Thread =
ragingbull.altavista.com
m. Rule Maker MASTER LIST - Updated 7/3/2000 =
boards.fool.com
n. Technology Stock Recommendations Site = tsrec.com
o. The Moderated Q Thread =
Subject 36035
3. Market Information Web Sites:
a. A Financial Resources Center = on8.com
C. Magazines of Interest: Business Week, The Economist, The Industry Standard, Red Herring, Technology Investor, Upside Today, Scientific American and Wired.
D. Newspapers of Interest:
New York Times
nytimes.com
The Wall Street Journal
public.wsj.com
Financial Times
news.ft.com
8. Closing Statement: So why do we need your help? Because while we believe we know what has to be done, there are just not enough of us to do it right. Or to quote LindyBill, "As we look to the future, we can pretty well pick out the technologies that will succeed. They are the ones that give us speed and information in the simplest possible way, and are the easiest to use. The evolution of the G&K board is following the same pattern. We are getting more useful information, faster, simpler, and in an easier to use format. This is because we have hit upon the right structure, and are attracting the right people, who are willing to do the work and contribute to our common goal, because everybody involved benefits from it.
The G&K Board the most successful, worthwhile, committee I have ever been on in my life!
This is a direct result, of course, of invention of the Internet. The G&K board is an example of one of the "Killer Apps" of the Internet. So, where do we go from here? What do we watch for? The same things we are looking for right now, of course."
So why not join us?
<> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <>
I wish to thank all those who contributed to the composition of this FAQ. In particular, thanks, Uncle Frank, LindyBill, Mike Buckley, chaz, and DownSouth/Sir Galahad. In section 1, Chaz, the Master of the Hunt, wrote the first two paragraphs, and Mike Buckley wrote the third. The errors are mine, the credit belongs to the thread.
sixpak.cs.ucla.edu
……………………………..‹^›...‹(•¿•)›...‹^›.………………………
- Fred
yodajeff.com
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