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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Lucretius who started this subject1/28/2001 8:11:06 AM
From: sun-tzu  Read Replies (5) of 436258
 
Not much substance here:

I find the examples of corporate layoffs and national debt amusing. So what if WCOM is laying off workers. The cost of doing business was small. WCOM hired workers indiscriminantly and now is paying the price. Their management has proven to be incompetent and their stock price is reflective of this fact. Take Flextronics as the opposite example. They hired temporary workers and are not feeling the pinch of poor decision making and execution that WCOM currently enjoys.

With regard to national debt. History is filled with examples of a national debt cycle with alternating highs and lows. Sure, the debt is extraordinarily high, but so is the overall GDP. You may not want to believe the debt is being reversed, but that's your prerogative. Furthermore, awaiting the crash of the dollar is ludicrous. Face facts, the FOMC, in concert with worldwide central banks, won't allow the collapse of the global monitary standard. Analogies to Japan ar far-fetched. Their incompetence is well chronicled.

The only good point I have found here is the observation that the long-term Nasdaq downtrend line still has yet to be broken. Very true, but the breach of the short-tern trend line does suggest that this 3600 level will be approached. This is especially true given the Fed's current aggressive easing stance. Using this logic I now see a range between 2700 and the long-term trend line. Some external force will clearly need to be in place to propel us higher.

I view this thread as the mirror image of the Gorilla and King Portfolio thread. You guys are two peas in a pod. One blindly long and the other the very definition of "alarmist". One piece of advice: It's never as good as you think and it's never as bad as you think. Your short positions are about to get creamed unless you objectively read the information in front of you.

Shades of gray.
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