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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory
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To: Michael Watkins who wrote (3200)1/28/2001 10:02:27 AM
From: Hawkmoon  Read Replies (1) of 33421
 
Well, I'm suspect of any downtrend in the dollar, even if the economy has not bottomed out.

Let me provide a simplistic analogy...

If a major company is suffering from overextension of their business model and needs to consolidate, do you sell it, or sell the companies that supply it?

And this is the sense that I have here... I think too many other economies are dependent upon supplying the US, as opposed to fostering their own domestic growth and consumption.

Thus, even though there is a possibility of further problems in the US, I think the dollar remains a safe haven in the global storm.

Now were we running deficits rather than budget surpluses, the dollar could easily slide to lower levels.

Regards,

Ron
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