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Non-Tech : Harley Davidson (HDI)

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To: Jackie Goodson who started this subject	1/28/2001 4:15:29 PM
From: mmmary	Read Replies (2) of 156

HD Conference call After I'd taken great notes in notepad during the conference my computer crashed right before the end so I lost it all. This is all from memory as there is no way in hell I'm listening to that 61 minute conference call again. The questions asked were good though. He said that the stock dip because of rumors from hedge funds which had large short orders. Short orders were at an all time high at the time. He said demand is trong. We are monitoring the retail division and demand is strong. They worked an extra day this quarter so they were able to ship more bikes than originally estimated. They shipped 204K in 2000 and will ship 227K in 2001 wihich is an ll% increase. They believe in controlled double digit growth. The average price went up 2.9% as they are selling more tour bikes than sportsters. Blast profits were down. The average Buell sells for twice as much as the Blast and they introduced the blast this year. parts and accessories were up l9% over last year same time. They expect higher growth in P&A in 2001 than bikes and general merchandise. HD Financial Services was up. They expect faster growth in this division than bike revenue also. They will expand outside their walls. It will take two years just to plan for it. They bought l.5M shares when the price went down. They now have a total of 3.3M. US is now the largest bike market in the world. European market is going down. HD lost market share in 2000. Japan and Australia HD market is down but bike registration is up. There are now 600K HOG members. Questions and answer: The new rumors are that we will see the slowdown in the Q1 and/or Q2 quarters. How do you feel about this? We are recession resistent but not recession proof. We are monitoring the market and looking at the economy. We are looking at the sale price of new and used HDs sold through our HDFS division. We finance 20% of the HDs sold through dealerships. We have not seen a change in the prices in 2000. Keep in mind we only know the sales prices of 20% of the bikes. We are talking to our dealers. Did the weather affect your production? The bad weather did not affect our production at all. Where will you be expanding, Europe? We have no idea yet. We haven't even found a site or broken ground. It takes 2 years just to plan it. We're just starting to plan it. We have enough room within our walls for expansion for the next two years. You only expect to grow by ll% when you have been growing at l5%. Why the decrease? As we reach our current maximum production capacity, the rate at which we grow decreases. We will look at our growth every quarter and may adjust it. __________________________ I personally see some slowing here as the recreational vehicle sector as a whole is slowing. I think we will see the slowing which is evident at the dealer level trickle up by Q1 to HD corporate in the form of HD goods and Q2 in the form of bike orders. They have reduced growth rate to ll% which is down from l5%. I think it is a telling sign.

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