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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: lurqer who wrote (67795)	1/29/2001 12:33:53 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (1) of 99985

To: Rowton,SBerg,lurqer re Demographics & Stock Market... I've developed a model for estimating the direction and strength of the pressure exerted on stock prices by demographic forces, using the chart of Immigration Adjusted Birth Rates on p35 (on my copy) of Harry Dent's Roaring 2000s book. It attempts to measure what what would happen if all other factors, such as Fed policy were neutral, which of course they never are. A few examples of the 40-60 method: In the early 70's, the 40-60 numbers were negative and falling and the Market didn't do very well. In '86 and '87 they made an explosive positive move and the S&P more than doubled between mid'84 and 8/87. The first half of a double positive peak was reached in '97 and the S&P was only 5% above its July '98 peak when it bottomed intraday on 12/21/00. You can't set your watch by it, but it's a decent barometer of the long-term trend. Going forward, it's mildly to moderately favorable for this year, transitioning to moderately unfavorable for 2002 and mildly unfavorable for 2003. After a mild improvement in 2004 possibly continuing into 2005, 2006 could be devastating and 2007 looks bad as well. We could be living the pre-87 Crash run-up in reverse 20 years later as those 40ish baby boomers turn 60ish. Does anyone know how I can get birth data on the post-Civil War to 1908 period. Even if it's not precise and not broken down by individual year, I could use it to back-test the 1921 to 1968 period.

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