Dear Scumbria:
Missile defense is a must. You claim that smuggling a weapon is easier. How much do you know about nuclear radiation? It is easy to detect even at low levels. One or two particles or photons can determine presence and a good idea of from where. Then you go down that route with a more sensitive directionally detector and ride the photon or particle stream straight to the source. The quanity of fissile material required generates huge numbers of these particles. Thus, a suitcase bomb while relatively safe to the carrier, can be detected at very long ranges (in the dozens of km). Heck, satellites can be made to detect them from low earth orbit and I'm fairly sure that the military already has many such units in orbit.
To defeat this, requires much shielding which is very heavy and massive. Since suitable trucks and trains can easily be seen and detectors placed along suitable routes, stops that method. Thus, you are left with ships and subs. All ships and subs would either be stopped by the Coast Guard or the Military. They can run a portable scanner to find the material. Nearness greatly increases the sensitivity. Only the very largest of ships could carry enough shielding from an internal scan. These would be easy to track down to their source in an event that would implicate them as if the weapon ever left the ship, all the detectors would go off, bombers busted. Thus, when it blows, the shielding would reduce the blast effects and paint the source with certainty.
All of this is quite expensive even after obtaining the fissile material required (the real cost of acquistition). Most terrorist groups do not have the resources required. Only governments are left. The only true way to anonomity, is a sub launched ballistic missile. It is the only guaranteed way to insure a strike at the target and a miss will still cause much terror.
That is why all potential terrorist organizations persue this method. Once an ICBM or SLBM is constructed, it will get to its target (anyone who would put forth the effort will make quite sure it will work) because we have no defense. If you keep your door unlocked and everyone knows this, you will be the target of theft until you lock it or otherwise guard it.
Besides, if such an attack is launched now, we have only three very undesirable options, do nothing, invade, or nuclear strike. In any case, all of the relatives of those who were killed will want someones blood. Missile defense adds a highly desirable option, missile destruct or disablement. Now, we can calmly go after those who struck at us making sure we get the right ones. A nuclear missile into Denver would cause much more in losses than such a program and if, it comes up short, whoops, no more Scumbria or his family.
Do you want to explain that some chance that such a disaster could be averted was not taken because a few measly billion? Would you pay a million to save your child if, one got into an accident that required a risky, say 50/50, procedure but, death was otherwise certain? Now multiply that by 100,000 or a million. Well, now we are talking real money, 100 billion, at least. Hey, that is the upper bound of a single missile defense system.
Enough said.
Pete |
