Wireless Predictions for 2001 - an entertaining read.... and for 2001, I suspect his predictions will do quite well.
random comments ----
2.) Killer app will still be messaging, but some trivially simple, extremely useful wireless location-based service will explode out of nowhere, shredding existing business models and spawning others.
I think SMS + bandwidth will be transformed with integrated graphic applications, but not in 2001.
IMO GPS will be the catalyst for remarkable and unexpected applications - and gestation periods will be surprisingly fast. Adding GPS will be adding context as a variable - it will add an additional dimension to wireless services - one that will be unique to wireless, and not replicated on the home PC... Most significant.
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4.) The PDA and cellular phone markets will not converge. Many devices will appear that combine the best and worst of both (and some of them will dominate niche markets, like RIM's BlackBerry in Wall Street banks), but the device of choice for the mass market will still be a phone; keypad, screen, mic, speaker.
IMO the phone function will become marginalized. But not in 2001.
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6.) Wireless gaming, especially with tight integration to PlayStation, GameBoy, and other gaming/consoles, will eclipse PC gaming.
Ahhhh - the importance of wireless "games" ((broadest definition)).
Regarding narrow definition - I found today's release most important - NTT to bring mobile Net to Playstation
Message 15261260
Sad that deal wasn't with - say - Sprint - but Sony deal with NTT should be expected....
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8.) Western countries, spoiled by relatively cheap, hi-speed, desktop Internet access, still won't "get" this whole wireless thing. Meanwhile the entire rest of the world will leapfrog directly to advanced wireless, and "getting on the net" will mean opening your phone.
I think this can change on a dime (ie: GPS) - but again, not in 2001.
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A fun article!
ben |
