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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 78.67

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To: John Koligman who wrote (47413)	1/29/2001 2:57:35 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) of 77400

Since they can't even predict one month out with any accuracy, why the heck should we believe their six-month forecasts? The risk premium increases as more and more companies miss or lower expectations. Cisco is but the latest failure, or apparent failure. I think EMC will become the new Cisco, i.e., the large-cap tech growth bellwether, because Cisco itself seemingly is not up to the task. Meanwhile, it seems Cisco will become the next Dell, i.e., a former highflyer whose glory days are past... It is ironic that we beancounters harangue the company for their financial doings. Wall St. and Main St. showed great intellectual ability to withstand the onslaught of truth in these matters. But in the end, alas, it is slack demand that gets the best of them. Just like Dell. When a company's revenues are rocking, it seems Wall St. cuts them an incredible amount of slack. But when the tide turns, those high valuations can come home to roost. Bawk bawk! All the above just my humble opinion.

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