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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: oldirtybastard who wrote (62812)1/29/2001 9:27:05 PM
From: Mark Adams  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
I tend to agree, that it's unlikely models that can account for extraordinary changes (like natural gas price rising 4x) adequetly. There's just to many inter-relations and potential out of the blue things. Thus, the financial system is chaotic in nature. A butterfly flaps it's wings in finland, and 17,000 workers are layed of in New Jersey.

The value of exchanged points of view made possible by the collection of diverse minds, such as SI, cannot be underestimated. We don't have good access to things like payroll tax withholding on a monthly or weekly basis- which could give better understanding of true economic activity, or tax receipts from estimated tax payments. Some of that data may be available from the CBO, but I haven't looked and don't know how current such data could be. But the fed could like have that updated nearly instantaneously on war room style screen.

So you could say we are better off in that we can collect ancedotal evidence, and build that into our mental models, but we can't truly assess the magnitude of many of the events. I mean, what's the impact of 10billion writeoff in a trillion dollar economy? <g- it's a biggie if you ask me>

That the majority of our fine citizens are in effect wearing blinders is quite true, IMO. At least they can sleep at night <g>. This is where the 'group' brain has an advantage- we can recogonize and build in events the masses may not ever hear about.

I see the lack of informed consent to the financial rape of the masses (oh, those are probably too strong of terms) as being due to the poor quality of info delivery on the part of the media (most of america hears only the major market averages) and the fact that it's very difficult for many people to assimilate the huge amount of info available.
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