Don't Hold Your Breath
Mobile commerce has great hype. That may be the only thing that's great about it
The marketing blitz around the wireless Web and mobile commerce already resembles overhyped disappointments of the past, such as the picturephone (remember the 1964 World's Fair?), interactive TV and satellite telephones.
To see why, flee the trade-show bubble and travel to Europe, where wireless operators began offering Internet access through cell phones last year. Europe was supposed to be a prime market for the wireless Web, because cell-phone use is higher there than in the U.S., while PC-based Internet use is much lower.
So far, though, the wireless Web is a flop in Europe. Analysts estimate that there are fewer than two million users, one-fifth of last year's projections. Even that number may overstate real use. One German operator says its average user logs on less than a minute a day.
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Faster, Cheaper Alternatives
Analysts say they've yet to see the compelling application that will drive large numbers of cell-phone users to the wireless Web. In many cases, it's easier, quicker and cheaper to get information other ways.
Just entering a credit-card number and a shipping address on a cell phone would be tedious and expensive, says Mr. Hold of Current Analysis. "You could spend more on airtime than on the book."
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