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Strategies & Market Trends : Your Worst Trading Enemy.. You

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To: shawnwolff who wrote (185)1/30/2001 12:02:24 AM
From: Ally  Read Replies (3) of 223
 
Shawn,

Thanks for your comments... appreciate them. I do differentiate between investing and trading. Have no problems investing... have done it well, and that's why I can now do it full time. Like you, I have a passion for the market.

My remarks were directed specifically to daytrading. Over past few months, I've been doing research and practical testing of daytrading. I've arrived at the conclusion that daytrading is not for me. The reason is simple: stock direction is unpredictable within the time frame of a trading day. Unpredictability = Gambling (Chance). Because direction is unpredicable, the usual practice is to set tight stops, watch chart closely and take trades out as soon as the chart pattern shows weakening. The more conservative daytraders wait for confirmations with buy and sell stops... however, they have to wait for long periods of time for the set-ups to materialize, only to be stopped out at break-evens or narrow margins.

Your point that the battle for daytraders is to tackle the emotions of the market, and also the emotions of other traders is well taken. It is a game of musical chairs, and those with the fastest fingers and strong guts win! Emotions play different roles for different trading styles. In day trading, I think it is not so much as one's emotions that will define success but rather one's gut make-up and quick fingers. It is a game of chicken! The game is so psychologically stacked against the players that most will lose. And they lose not because they fail to control their emotions, but rather, the game is stacked! It is not unlike Vegas, where a majority of players come out losers.

I think intermediate trend (momentum) trading (days and weeks) is more relevant to relate success directly to emotional control. Identifying supply and demand requires more skill than luck. It requires one to be objective and disciplined in following rules.... such as holding on during long trends and letting go on trend reversals, or waiting patiently for stock to test support/resistance levels before initiating a trade.

My conclusion:

In day trading, blame more the nature of the game rather than one's emotions for not succeeding.

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