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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 76.11

+0.9%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: ig who wrote (47483)	1/30/2001 8:11:49 AM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) of 77400

"In summary: 1. He has believed that inflation is an insidious thing that grows very quickly once it gets over a certain threshold, and that it needs to be vigorously controlled to prevent it from snowballing. I AGREE. KEY WORD IS WHEN IT GETS OVER A CERTAIN THRESHOLD WHICH IT HASNT IN THIS CYCLE. WHILE UNDER THE THRESHOLD HE TOOK ACTION(EXCESSIVE RATE INCREASES) THAT HELPED CAUSED THE UNNAMED CONDITION WE ARE NOW IN 2. He has believed, with very good reason, that if inflation is allowed to slip over that threshold, the steps necessary to rein it in after it begins to metastasize will bring about serious recession. In other words, in Greenspan's mind, growing inflation is a precursor -- NOT an alternative -- to recession. Letting inflation grow in order to preempt recession actually risks making an exacerbated recession inevitable. CORRECT! AGAIN WHEN ABOVE THE THRESHOLD. 3. He may be changing his mind, but we'll just have to see." HE NOW REALIZED HE IS DEALING IN A DIFFERENT ENVIRONMENT THAN BEFORE AND YES WE SHALL SEE My belief is that rate increases were one or two too many but it was the election result uncertainty that added psychological fuel to the fire, killing nasdaq which had been in an reasonably orderly decline prior to November 7 and thus killing the christmas season which is what caused the inventory corrections and now what appears to be a first half recession. Rate cuts leading to nasdaq rebound and a return of consumer confidence is now seen by Greenspan(IMO) as the correct medicine along with tax relief(not surplus). If the election had had a clear victor perhaps we would have soft landed and the first 1/4cut would be tomorrow. I am interested in your opinion on the above scenario. Mike

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