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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: sandeep who wrote (63058)1/30/2001 1:23:22 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
the problem is, everybody seems to be convinced the rate cut will ensure a melt-up...it's the famous watched pot, and funny enough, the Rydex bull/bear assets have people even more bullish than on the eve of the presidential election, another one of those rallies that everybody 'knew' was coming for sure...

note that we've had plenty of poor earnings announcements and guidance - the latest hype is that the 'strong second half' will pull us out, which is precisely the same hype that was circulated last year during the summer.

the excesses of two decades are not wrung out in a few months time...and in a secular bear guessing at the extent of counter-trend rallies is perilous at best.
of course it is POSSIBLE that Feb 22 will be a high instead of a low, but i wonder what the positioning bullish consensus is supposed to be then? 100%? is 90% not enough?
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