Steve, re: ALA
first of all here are tel. number for CCs separate for ALA and ALAO
English , US investors:
ALA; 1-800-230-1093 (9:00 am ET)
ALAO: 1-800-230-1093( 7:00 am ET)
Below are posted an article ( translation from French) describing well current situation.
What I know that analysts expect 9.2B Euro and 520 million net operating income.
They seems not to focus on eps. May be b/c average amount of shares in changing Q by Q?
This would translate to 37-38% FY 2000 growth.
In last year ALA increased forecast for FY2000 from mid 30’s to upper 30’s .
At the end of first week of January Bloomberg reported Serge interview for French radio where he said FY2000 will be well above 35% what tell me that upper 30’s is a done dell.
In second week of January COO had ( I have listened) presentation on MSDW conf. and reiterated
25% FY2001 growth, b/c of right products and big European and international exposure.
N.America will double this year. Now 24% of total revenue.
For example J.Chmbers said during weekend that Carriers in Europe are so far resilient to US problems
This does not surprise me since, they are 2 years behind, growth is stronger and prime % is 1.25% lower.
Almost everybody is saying that Europe will outgrow US this year.
So may be ALA can do 25% top line.
Many analysts are saying that b/c CSCO,Ericsson and Nokia ALA shares dropped 15% in one week and already reflects possibility of lower forecast 20%+ instead 25%.
Of course Q1 is historically weaker (1999, 2000 etc) for every vendor regardless economy.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
uesday January 30 2001, 13h09
The doubt planes on ALCATEL
(AOF) - Whereas Nokia (Paris: 5838.PA - topicality ) re-examined this morning with
the fall its estimates of growth for 1st quarter 2001 for its division mobile terminals,
the investors disengage title Alcatel (-4,55% to 57,80 euros towards 12h50),
fearing that Serge Tchuruk, at the time of the publication of his results, does not
re-examine to him also his objectives with the fall. A possibility, although under
consideration by considerable analysts, which does not call into question the assets
of Alcatel.
DECRYPTAGE
Everyone remembers the date of September 17, 1998, date on which Alcatel had
published disappointing results: the title had lost at the time approximately 9%.
With the advertisement day before of the annual results of the group and whereas
it is the only one not to have announced " profit warning ", the investors position
with the sale on the title, consolidated by the revisions with the fall of the growth
targets of Nokia for 1st quarter 2001.
With the occasion of a conference in the United States last December, Serge
Tchuruk had indicated that it counted on a growth of the activity of 25% for the
sector of the télécoms and that it provided that the operating margin should gain
3% into 2002.
The analysts, on their side, do not exclude the possibility of a " mini profit warning
" tomorrow but remain favorable to the value. Thus, Total (Paris: 7694.PA -
topicality ) Equities maintains its recommendation of Purchase and its objective of
course of 88 euros: the analyst counts on excellent results 2000 which will make it
possible the French group to gain shares of market. The engineering and design
department underlines in addition that Alcatel is distinguished from its American competitors in particular by a
marketing-mix more balanced (1/4 of the sales in the United States, 1/2 in Europe) like by a abscence of
over-exposure to the difficult segments (of the assets in optics, a good position in the mobile terminals but as a
marginal actor, excellent position in the ADSL...). For the analyst, the group should reaffirm its growth targets and " to
sell Alcatel today justifies itself only if the investors decide to withdraw sector definitively ".
Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein (recommendation To buy) is him as convinced as the results of Alcatel will be in
conformity or higher than its estimates. The analyst adds that the Alcatel title currently integrates all recent the bad
news announced by its competitors (Nortel, Cisco, Corning, JDS Uniphase). Consequently, the engineering and
design department estimates that the investors will be reassured if Alcatel anticipates a growth higher than 20% per
2001. The analyst adds the actors of the market will be particularly attentive with the trading margins of Alcatel. He
specifies that currently the analysts count on a margin of 8,5% per 2001 and that any revision with the fall would be
perceived negatively.
Etc (recommendation To reinforce) remains trustful on the performances carried out during 2000 and counts on a
turnover of 31,14 billion euros (+35,3%) and on a trading margin of 7,1% (against 9,1%). Etc specifies that if Serge
Tchuruk preserves the same visibility as that announced last December, " it will seem very judicious to position on a
nonaffected value by ambient stagnation ".
Side of Crédit Lyonnais (Paris: 18420.PA - topicality ) Securities Europe (recommendation of Purchase with an
objective of course of 100-110 euros), the analyst specialist in the value is convinced that the results of the fourth
quarter of Alcatel will not disappoint. It counts on a rise of the quarterly sales of 18% (that is to say an annual
progression of 37%) on line with the forecasts of Serge Tchuruk and on a EBIT in progression of 72% in the télécoms
activity. The engineering and design department indicates that because of uncertainties concerning the market, it
would not be astonished that Serge Tchuruk shows himself particularly careful and does not revise with the fall its
growth targets for 2001. However, Crédit Lyonnais Securities Europe does not anticipate a significant reduction of
the prospects taking into account the position for Alcatel in the sector and of good sound produce mix (Optics,
ADSL etc).
The title should not be begun again today, taking into account the nervousness of the actors. It is only tomorrow
morning, with the advertisement of the results before the opening of the purse, that suspense will end. (E.C) |
