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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 268.79

+4.6%

Jan 2 3:59 PM EST

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To: Jerome who wrote (41797)	1/30/2001 9:46:30 PM
From: advocatedevil	Read Replies (2) of 70976

There appears to be a common belief among many semi investors that the slowdown we have been experiencing is a one or two quarter event. I keep hearing comments like: "The second half of the year will be much better". Press release warnings continue on a regular basis, but the Fed is going to bail us out, right? So, I guess today we simply can't lose. If earnings and revs are rockin', interest rates don't matter and we can ride the growth wave. If earnings and revs are slowing, AG will cut rates and interest rates do matter and will move the market higher. IMO, something's wrong with this scenario. It's been a great January and I'm going to lock in some profits here. It seems a second half turnaround is already priced into many semi stocks at this point. As we move through the quarter, and if we get any indication that the second half may be weaker than anticipated, things could get ugly fast. The risk seems to be to the downside at this point. AdvocateDevil

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