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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 681.44

+1.6%

Nov 10 4:00 PM EST

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (68051)	1/31/2001 2:00:37 AM
From: KevinMark	Read Replies (1) of 99985

>>>Right now, my "visibility" beyond next March is "poor. I have a tentative low early March in the 2200 to 2300, with an outside possibility of 1900 on the Naz<<< I have the exact opposite view. I feel we will hit a temporary high in early March of 3500-3700, leaning more towards 3694. Then, we will begin our decent downtown by mid-March, based on a culmination of four things: lock-up expirations, tax-day approaching, earnings warnings, and bad economic data. Lowering interest rates does not induce panic. Unexpected economic data will. And by this time in March and April, the announced layoffs will be a reality marked by an explosion in the non-farm payrolls report. The unexpected increase in unemployment, coupled with a lower consumer confidence rating, will set the stage for another melt-down to a level I'm not to sure about. KM

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