KLA-Tencor Corporation (KLAC) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : KLA-Tencor Corporation (KLAC)

KLAC 1,181

-2.2%

3:49 PM EST

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To: Jerome who wrote (1566)	1/31/2001 2:31:51 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) of 1779

Superior timing is just not that important. I'm having trouble making sense of that statement, especially in relation to a sector as volatile as this one. If you think a stock will go up, and it goes down instead, you will lose money. Well if you bought SFAM and FSII you could option your way to some very nice profitability. With KLAC and AMAT you have to hope that they swing up so that you can trade out of them profitably. What's to stop you from trading options on AMAT or KLAC? Many people have outlined profitable options strategies over on the AMAT thread. No such problem with the other three.They are headed up and the only question is how far and over what time frame. On what do you base that prediction? If you think they will go up farther or sooner than the big five, why? One difference we have is that you are talking buy and hold (thus the five year charts) and I'm talking about some decent profits within six months or less. No, I was talking about trading the changes in trend in the sector. But what happens if you bet wrong on the direction of the stock within that time frame? Then the long term performance suddenly becomes significant. People felt the same way about KMAG when it was at 30, Xerox when it was at 50, and the same for Polaroid, and I might add Chrysler when it was over 90, or KLIC at 80. In my opinion large caps offer no more protection than small caps to the buy and hold crowd, than do small caps. I thought we were talking about semiconductor equipment stocks. KLIC is not a large cap stock, and has only exceeded $1 billion in market cap for short periods of time. Timing is important for both large caps and small caps, and trading can work with any of them. Why not give yourself the advantage of higher long-term growth rate as a backup?

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