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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (85774)1/31/2001 3:02:46 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical  Read Replies (2) of 95453
 
1/2 rate cut will do little imho. Techs are still overvalued and the economy is still slowing. Greenspan did slow the economy with his rate increases last year, but increased energy costs were a big part of that picture. I don't see true relief from high energy costs until spring 2001 at the earliest. As such I agree with Slider that the shit will hit the fan later in 2001 as investors realize that backloaded earnings estimates of most of the techs will fail to be met.

Slider, FWIW, you're partly responsible for my PGO position today. We both might be a little bit early, but when you take 40% portfolio position in one stock - well that get's my attention. Hope you're right, but if not I'm prepared to buy at 7 to 7 1/2. I think you're early too early for a 40% position and I will average in over the next month to two months.

TA wise there's too much damage to pop back quickly. I'd look at NSS as a model. Took about 3 months for that puppy to truely bottom and start trending up after warning. Of course they warned about next quarter vs PGO warned about this up-coming quarter and much of the miss appears to be a 1-time earnings write-off. As such it may rebound quicker than NSS.
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