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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Think4Yourself who wrote (85806)1/31/2001 6:53:39 PM
From: upanddown  Read Replies (3) of 95453
 
JQ

I'm assuming the talk about negative comparisons from the "legends in their own mind/prophets in their own time" crowd must be referring to sequential comparisons and not Y-O-Y comparisons. I don't see much chance of negative Y-O-Y comparisons before 4Q 2001. There may be some negative sequential comparisons in the first quarter but many will be positive. Look at DVN. They made $2.27 on $4.76 gas in 4Q. Realizations for earlier qtrs were 2.26/3.00/3.62. They made $1.49 on $3.62 gas in 3Q2000 and estimates for 2Q2001 are just $1.32 which implies $3.50 or less for gas. I don't buy it. Too many supply problems and we are likely to end winter under 500B.

I also don't think sequential comparisons are valid because of seasonality factors.

John
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