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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 77.81

-0.3%

3:59 PM EST

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To: chic_hearne who wrote (47651)	1/31/2001 7:48:55 PM
From: bambs	Read Replies (2) of 77400

like the fool i am, i shorted amat and cree into the rate cut and covered like a chicken on the bounce just before the close...I wanted to take some shorts home with me but I still fear the irrational. I'm sure we bears we'll regain control just after March. Just like the "smart money" piled in at the end of october for the "fall rally" I would expect fast money to leave for the summer. The stat's say you don't make any returns historically between April and October if you are a buy and holder. After the 401k money is done coming and the fast money leaves people are going to have to question why they are holding garbage over valued stocks as the earnings picture continues to get worse. What everyone seems to not understand is the ecomony didn't go from white hot to what looks like a recession because of rate hikes. Easing will not bring the market and the economy back. The reason?!? The economy was white hot cause everyones assets were going up in value and people were spending more money then they make at there "day jobs" We had a negative savings rate as a percentage of disposable income. That can't go on for every. As the stock markets ripped and the housing market ripped people felt rich. They spent like mad. Not only are they going to change because of the money they have currently given back in the market but the main change will come as they come to understand that the easy money making days are gone. As they go from not saving what they make at there jobs to saving 7% or so it will continue to slow the economy. Earnings continue to suffer the stocks will go down with them. I know that you are with the program but I just wanted to say this for anyone that cares to listen. Things are going to get real bad over the next couple of years and getting out of over valued "growth stocks" that won't be growing earnings will likely prove to be a wise move. The gains from investments game is quickly ending. Margins are suffering. Revenue growth rates are slowing. It seems CEO's and analysts are trying to sell everyone on a second half recovery. IT WON'T HAPPEN. These rate cuts won't change the wealth effect that going to turn into a broke effect for middle america. Credit crunch is under way. As the lay offs start to take effect we will see a strong cycle downward. Best of luck in these difficult times, bambs

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