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Technology Stocks : AWARE
AWRE 1.850-2.6%Dec 31 3:59 PM EST
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To: Bobo who wrote (1877)2/1/2001 9:59:34 AM
From: StockDon  Read Replies (3) of 2404
 
Bobo, no doubt that South Korea was huge for ADI and Aware last year, but Korea only accounted for a portion of ADI's ADSL port shipments.
ADI shipped over 11 Million ADSL ports in 2000.
Let's say that a total of 5 Million ADSL ports were shipped to Korea in 2000 (all vendors).
If ADI had a 70% market share in Korea last year then they would have shipped around 3.5M ports to Korea. Where did the other 7.5M ADI ports ship to? How about Canada (Newbridge), France (ECI), Italy (Cisco), UK (Newbridge and ECI), Germany (ECI), China (Newbridge and ECI), Hong Kong (Cisco and ECI) and Taiwan (Cisco).

I think that pricing pressure is what is going to hurt Aware the most 1H 2001 and obviously the inventory buildup. ADI has also had too much of their success on the CO side and not the CPE side. I look for ADI to do something about that this year. To do this ADI is having to cut ADSL chip prices and this one of the main reasons why Aware's 2001 forecast has been lowered.

Globespan is obviously doing very well in ADSL, but I still don't think they are taking over ADI. I will say that I think that Cisco is going to add a new ADSL chip vendor this year, but I don't think their relationship with ADI will end. ADI will remain a very important ADSL chip supplier to Cisco and many others. We may also see ADI become the top CO ADSL chipset vendor to Alcatel later this year since Alcatel continues to struggle with their multi-port CO chips.

StockDon
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