JQP ? re: your continual re-write's....
"Q" one thing you have NEVER done; is to be out front & take a stand on any macro call/market direction. Quite frankly; I don't recall you ever making any out-front calls ? You've followed the madness of crowds quite frequently and waved your pom poms on both the way up and the way down...usually most ferverently at the tops over & over again for two+ years here.
You were buying tech & criticizing those of us who were "short" tech, or who went to heavy cash all the way down from NAZ 4000 to 2300.
I can cut & past all the posts....
Now; you claim to have made a great call on Tech here ?
You're down 1700 NAZ points and only up 500 since your Tech forray from what I see ?
Your Tech stocks are still not back to levels where you & other cheerleaders were waving your pom-poms and others went short.
It has STILL been 1700 points down & only 500 points up since I was so heavilly chastised for shorting tech & calling for a break under NAZ 2558.
Those who kept lots of cash - got to buy the OSX plunge under 100 to OSX 94; and people like you who went "max margin" on OCt 25th immediately walked into the collapse and rode the OSX rollover from 125 to 94 couldn't "really" buy anything; now could they ?
I took 75% of all my funds off the table at the end of August- first of September and that was heavilly criticized here - "I missed the boat" etc.... well; reality dictates otherwise.
The Dow, the NAZ and the OSX are all lower and are, or were much, much lower than where I took 75% of my chips off the table and raised lots of cash.
The OSX is down from it's 140 highs; the NAZ fell from 4000 to 2300 - down 1700 points & has only rallied 500 ? The DOW is still not quite back to 11,000 etc.
Those of us with cash & the non-permabulls; made nice profits short, got to "middle" a couple of nice rolling trading ranges within the OSX, got to play a couple of hit & run individual trading opps and most importantly; avoided all the risk of the election debacle, the economic slowdown & the then; unknown Fed & market reaction to it etc...
"Q" in case you haven't checked; the XOI, the OSX, the Dow and the NAZ are all still lower than they were at the end of August/fist of September when many here took chips off the table and the XNG has rolled over & my top call on Dec 31st for the Nat Gas stocks can only be judged by the below chart...
finance.yahoo.com^XNG&d=3mm
I called the XNG/Nat Gas stock rollover on Dec 31st (sunday) and that prior thursday & friday were the tops at XNG 270+ - having rallied approx 35 points in days prior & then immediately rolled over starting the monday after my sunday post.
Now "Q" - not to be arrogant; but "that" is a call...
And now we with "Cash" - we the "Profit Takers" - we the "Shorters" - we the "Middle Scalpers" ... "WE" get to make a much, much more informed decision with much better risk vs reward parameters seeing where the Fed is going, seeing that Greenspan has now endorsed the Tax Cut plan, seeing that OPEC will cut production and we are able to re-enter with fresh money; not continual averaging down money; as reality dicatates that the vast majority sell during the bottoms of the pullbacks and then buyback during the bounces; continually losing ground, getting whipsawed during this recent tech volatility.
In case no one has checked; the NAZ is down 2200 points and only up 500 since it topped ? That is 4.4 points down for every 1 point up... I'd say the Bears have not only "won" here of late - but, they've won Big, Easy AND Coyote-Ugly ~
Just since the thead "wars" broke out here in September between the blind-permabull cheerleaders and the unemotional traders; the NAZ is down 1700 and only up 500, the OSX is still down about 15 points and the XNG has rolled over and returned right back to where it started...
For Tech cheerleaders who are celebrating and now have no fear - we are a long, long way from Septembers NASDQ 4000 in case you haven't checked lately and this was far, far from a fundamentally supported rally.
Nothing ran away from anyone who kept strong cash levels; there are still plenty of tech bargains, plenty of Oilpatch bargains & plenty of broad market opportunities as well.
"Q" as far as "Your timing being off" - you've never really made a "timing" call; you've claimed to have done so a few times; but rather obviously after the fact; either "glad you sold, or held" whichever case best supported your earlier pom pom waving; but you've never taken an original position, or led the break in any direction with any macro call here ?
The Oilpatch has seen tremendous volatility over the last 2 years of this cycle; offering tremendously profitable exit & re-entry opps for traders.
Where did you EVER call any subcycle tops & take any significant profits ?
Where did you EVER call any significant bottom & be right ?
I can link you to numerous "max margin" posts all of which were never near the bottoms...?
I can show you where you were saying the same things you are saying now; back in the Sept 1999 E&P rollover to where you boxed yourself into a corner with TMR and lost your ass & now you're making the same exact mistake one again.
I can show you where you were saying the same things & failing to take profits into stength and buying more into weakness untill Web Street margin call-liquidated your ass and we got to read your now infamous tear-jerker public mea culpa post... remember that "call" ?
"Q" - you ignore reality, you attempt to re-write it, you ignore the facts, you've NEVER taken substantial levels of profits off at ANY tops - and in case you have not caught on yet; that is the only "REAL" way you ever can win in this game... you gotta ring the register to win ~
At least Diana stopped out & kept some of her profits - you'll be destined to rollover at peak cycle when these stocks pullback 20%, bounce up 5% - where you'll buy more, then pullback another 15% & bounce up 10% and you'll buy more, then pullback another 20% and fail to bounce back; you'll go max margin again & then they'll rollover & die...and you'll get liquidated for the 3rd time via margin calls; but oly to probably re-emerge yet again under a different screen name; aka K Lingerfelt, John Q Public et al ... who knows what your next reincarnation will be... ?
PS: Considering that you just rolled over with your Nat Gas stocks; having pounded your chest that you were going to go long Nat Gas futures & chastising those who called the rollover for both the stocks & the commodity.
What happened to that timing call ?
You were dead wrong on the commodity/futures call.
You were dead wrong on the Nat Gas stock rollover call as well ?
Tech; maybe you lowered your cost basis as December obviously did offer some great tech buying opps; but you were buying the same names in Sept at NAZ 4000 and in October at NAZ 3500 & chastising those who went short ? So it's not as if you made any positive tech call; you simply bought more a little cheaper...(VBG).
"Q" you've been a follower & a parrot here; nothing more, nothing less. Just a pom pom waving , cut & paste cheerleader - parroting whatever analyst report, or soundbyte that supports your case.
"Q" you got boxed into a reality check corner earlier here; because you couldn't have been buying tech back at NAZ 3500 like you were and then went MAX MARGIN on OCT 25th like you posted you did, right here on this thread & then immediately rolled over to OSX 94 and having not sold the NG stocks during their run up; rolling over with them as well here and now claim to have made oodles of money ?
Quite honestly "Q"; I see no one who played this market more WRONG than what you have of late ?
You no longer mention the specific names you're buying; because we keep pinning you to reality; you don't say when you're selling - because you get pinned to reality; no - you want to go "silent" during those volatile periods; then re-appear claiming to be on yet another vacation; of which you've amazingly been on during each of the last 4 Oilpatch blow ups...or to be "glad you sold, or glad you held" - whichever scenario best supports your position...
"Q" - you've become an embarrassing hystrionic, pithy e-stereotype here.
You'd better rotate to the Oilpatch subsectors with the most earnings momenteum for 2002 numbers as compared to 2001 numbers and get a little "late cycle" reality check Mo-Jo working here... as "Q" it is NOT the "arrival" of negative comps that leads to rollover; it's their "appearance" on the horizon - please understand that rather simpletonian concept and save yourself a little money ~
This is a cyclical sector - you can't keep trading these stocks like growth stocks.
I'd hate to see yet another tear jerker-mea culpa margin call/liquidation blues post for the 3rd time in one Boom Cycle...but "Q" something tells me some people never learn and we've got another one comin' ... |
