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Technology Stocks : 3DO: Hot Games for Hot Machines (THDO)
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To: David Patrick O'Connor who wrote (3762)2/1/2001 10:43:51 AM
From: Bruce Prescott  Read Replies (1) of 4081
 
David,

I can understand your frustration with 3DO. I don't think all the doom and gloom is necessary. I've held through a lot worse news than this and watched it come back.

PSX 2 will probably make or break 3DO. My bet is that PSX 2 will make it. Currently it is the only thing left on the market. Sega is finished. X-box is still in development. Nintendo's console is in development. Sony still says it will deliver 9 million machines by the end of March.
Who knows how many more will be delivered between then and the fall when x-box is supposed to arrive. If x-box does arrive who knows what quantities they will deliver.

I think the psychological momentum is entirely in Sony's hands. There have been times when console manufacturers have given the impression of scarcity to create demand and then dumped large numbers of machines on the market. Last fall I thought that is what Sony was doing. I thought it was all hype and that in the last few weeks before Christmas the machines would arrive and they would fly off the shelves. The week before Christmas I went to several stores to see if the machines had arrived and, as we all know, they hadn't. What I saw at those stores was enough to convince me that when it does arrive, it will be a huge success.

At my local Circuit City store I saw young teenagers with their parents standing in line to get a chance to play on the PSX 2 display model. I took note of the exasperation of one parent who tried and failed miserably to get her son to settle for a Dreamcast. He was dead set certain that he didn't want a Dreamcast. He wanted a PSX 2 and he didn't care if he had to wait until after Christmas to get one. She was sold on Dreamcast and said, "But this one (Dreamcast) connects to the internet, don't you think it will be able to do more than the PSX 2." The boy told her, "I can get on the internet on my computer, this one (PSX 2) plays DVD's." I knew then and there that Dreamcast was finished.

Once PSX 2 starts delivering, I think they are going to blow off the shelves. They are going to have at least a one year head start on X-box. When x-box does deliver it is going to have a ton of cheap, poor quality games. At the same time, in the fall, PSX 2 will have waves of expensive, quality games that make high profits for the developers.

I don't think X-box is going to be much of a threat to 3DO. The only serious competition that is left is Nintendo.
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