Archimedes,
That chart really is interesting. I pulled out some receipts from when I was building my house in 97-98 and 2X4's were costing me $2.28 each. I bought some 2X4's for my garage a month ago and they cost $2.26. Whoever gets the part that comes out of the middle must be doing okay. A ball park guess is it would cost 20-25% more to build the same house today. The cost of studs is a fairly small part of what goes into a house. It's the cost of siding, roofing, trusses, doors, windows, carpeting, sheetrock, etc., etc., etc. that runs the price up. I don't follow the sector so I really don't have much of an idea what the 20 something analysts are saying, but I'd have to assume any analysis based on wholesale lumber prices vs. construction costs would have to be flawed. Off hand I'd have to say the single biggest cost of building a house for anyone not willing to swing their own hammer is the cost of labor. If I were looking for trends, I think one of the places to check would be employment numbers. People without jobs have a hard time getting financing to buy a new house. Interest rates and building costs would have an effect on how much house a person can afford, but somewhere along the line they still have to pay for whatever they buy. Maybe buy dips after periods of higher unemployment and lower consumer confidence start to reverse?
Just my two cents worth and probably worth every penny of it. |
