iod_sherwood, I think we passed the 3rd leg of the bear market.
We had it in Dec--> Jan 3.
Most people are in funds so they don't panic like they used to.
Furthemore I think this time it is different:
From Wall Street Journal:
=========================
February 1, 2001
Page One Feature
interactive.wsj.com
By GREG IP and NICHOLAS KULISH
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
With Wednesday's half-point interest rate cut, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan
is hoping to lift the nation's economic spirits before they pull the economy into recession.
Together with another half-point cut earlier this year, the Fed's actions mark
the central bank's most aggressive easing move since 1982.
But there's a key difference between now and 19 years ago.
-Back then, the central bank was struggling to revive an economy that had fallen into deep recession,
-with unemployment rates near the double digits.
This time around, Mr. Greenspan is administering medicine to a patient
who's still showing remarkable health, including a jobless rate that, at 4%, is near a 30-year low.
More than usual, the Fed chief appears to be engaged in a game of psychology,
struggling less to revive a moribund economy than to restore a sense of confidence
to the nation's consumers and businesses.
He remains convinced that the New Economy is for real, and that it promises above-average economic growth
Shift in Tactics
The pace and magnitude of cuts show a shift in tactics by Mr. Greenspan,
who has generally preferred to move in small, quarter-point steps in order to avoid startling the markets.
The half-point Jan. 3 cut took markets by surprise, and even Wednesday's cut
though less than the three-quarters point some had hoped for,
was more than the consensus expectation just a few weeks ago.
Former Fed Vice Chairman Alan Blinder says Mr. Greenspan is moving more aggressively because
"he sees a more pressing need than is normal. Second, the market has gotten better at thinking ahead
to what the Fed is going to do. The result is that his previous worry
-- that if you move too much at once you'll unsettle the markets -- isn't a worry any more."
Whether the Fed's action will be sufficient to revive the economy's sagging spirits remains to be seen.
But some were optimistic Wednesday. "This half-point cut is exactly what was needed to brake our descent
into a general downturn," says Mr. Jasinowski, the NAM president.
"The astute timing of the Fed's last two interest-rate moves ... probably has prevented an economy-wide recession."
-- G. Thomas Sims in Frankfurt in contributed to this article.
=====================================================
TA
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You said
Message #68301 from iod_sherwood at Feb 2, 2001 1:18 AM
We've just finished this part....
Primary Bear Market - Stage 2 - Big Move
As with the primary bull market, stage two of a primary bear market provides the largest move. This is when the trend has been identified as down and business conditions begin to deteriorate. Earnings estimates are reduced, shortfalls occur, profit margins shrink and revenues fall. As business conditions worsen, the sell-off continues.
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And we did the relief rally...
make that we just did the relief rally... off the "big move"
so stage three will last a while yet.. despair...
slow tick down... and the challenge will be if the rate cuts will truly re-spike growth, or if that asset bubble is hurting so bad that we'll be stifled for qtr's and qtr's to come....
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